Tuesday 29th March: European Open Briefing

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Global Markets:

  • Asian stock markets: Nikkei down 0.75 %, Shanghai Composite fell 1.10 %, Hang Seng declined 0.35 %, ASX 200 lost 1.45 %
  • Commodities: Gold at $1220 (-0.16 %), Silver at $15.19 (0.00 %), Crude Oil at $39.15 (-0.60 %), Brent Oil at $40.55 (-0.75 %)
  • Rates: US 10 year yield at 1.89, UK 10 year yield at 1.48, German 10 year yield at 0.18

News & Data:

  • Japan Unemployment Rate (Feb): 3.3% (exp 3.2% prev 3.2%)
  • Japan Retail Sales (YoY) Feb: 0.5% (exp 1.6% prev rev -0.2%)
  • Japan Retail Sales (MoM) Feb: -2.3% (exp -0.9% prev rev -0.4%)
  • Japan Overall Household Spending (YoY) Feb: 1.2% (exp -1.9% prev -3.1%)
  • Japan Job-To-Applicant Ratio (Feb): 1.28 (exp 1.29 prev 1.29)
  • South Korea Consumer Confidence (Mar): 100 (prev 98)
  • Japan's Negative Rates A Looming Headache For Central Bank — CNA
  • PBoC Fixes Yuan At 6.5060 (prev 6.5232)
  • Aussie Fund Manager Looking For Further Cuts Because Of AUD Strength — BBG
  • Australian Credit Cycle May Have Finally Turned — AFR
  • Global stocks, dollar wobble on weak U.S. data – RTRS
  • Oil prices fall as concerns rise over rally petering out – RTRS
  • Yen under pressure, U.S. data disappoints dollar bulls – RTRS

Markets Update:

The US Dollar recovered slightly after it fell against most major currencies yesterday. EUR/USD rallied to 1.1220 in yesterday's NY session and fell to 1.1185 in Asia. GBP/USD rose to 1.4280 and declined to 1.4240 after the Tokyo open. AUD/USD however, remains well bid and extended gains to 0.7570 in the overnight session. NZD/USD followed it higher, reaching a high of 0.6760. USD/CAD remains under pressure, despite the decline in oil prices since the trading week started. The pair fell from 1.3280 at the Sunday open to a low of 1.3170 yesterday. Overnight, it bounced from there and rose to a high of almost 1.32.

USD/JPY found decent support at 113.20 and rallied from there to a high of 113.65 in the Asian session. While the pair has temporarily ran out of momentum, it continues to be well bid and further gains seem likely. Resistance is seen at 113.80, followed by 114.15, but the major obstacle remains 114.50. A break above that level would then pave the way for a test of 116.

Upcoming Events:

  • 08:30 BST – Swedish Retail Sales
  • 09:00 BST – Euro Zone M3 Money Supply
  • 13:30 BST – Canadian RMPI
  • 13:55 BST – US Redbook
  • 14:00 BST – US CB Consumer Confidence
  • 16:30 BST – Fed Chair Yellen speaks
  • 17:00 BST – FOMC Member Dudley speaks
  • 18:00 BST – FOMC Member Kaplan speaks
  • 21:35 BST – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
  • 22:45 BST – New Zealand Building Consents

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