Thursday 31st March: European Open Briefing

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Global Markets:

  • Asian stock markets: Nikkei up 0.05 %, Shanghai Composite gained 0.40 %, Hang Seng fell 0.05 %, ASX 200 rose 1.30 %
  • Commodities: Gold at $1229 (+0.05 %), Silver at $15.25 (+0.20 %), WTI Oil at $37.90 (-1.10 %), Brent Oil at $39.75 (-0.75 %)
  • Rates: US 10 year yield at 1.81, UK 10 year yield at 1.43, German 10 year yield at 0.16

News & Data:

  • Australia HIA New Home Sales (MoM) Feb: -5.3% (prev rev 0.6%)
  • Australia Job Vacancies (QoQ) Feb 2.7%: (prev 3.5%)
  • Australia Private Sector Credit (MoM) Feb: 0.6% (exp 0.5% prev 0.5%)
  • Australia Private Sector Credit (YoY) Feb: 6.6% (exp 6.5% prev 6.5%)
  • New Zealand ANZ Business Outlook: 29.4 (prev 25.5)
  • New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence: 3.2 (prev 7.1)
  • New Zealand Money Supply M3 (YoY) Feb: 7.3% (prev 7.6%)
  • South Korea Industrial Production SA (MoM) Feb: 3.3% (exp 0.0% prev rev -2.1%)
  • South Korea Industrial Production (YoY) Feb: 2.4% (exp -0.2% prev rev -2.2%)
  • UK GfK Consumer Confidence (Mar): 0 (exp -1 prev 0)
  • UK Lloyds Business Barometer (Mar): 43 (prev 28)
  • PBoC Fixes Yuan At 6.4612 (prev 6.4841)
  • Moody’s: Australia's GDP Growth Will Likely Be Towards The Upper End Of Our 1.5% To 2.5% Forecast Range For 2016
  • Asia edges up to four-month high after Wall Street gains, dollar sags – RTRS
  • Oil falls as U.S. crude stocks hit record for seventh successive week – RTRS

Markets Update:

The US Dollar recovered slightly overnight after another day of losses. EUR/USD, which reached a high of 1.1365 yesterday, fell to a low of 1.1310 in Asia and is currently consolidating near that level. Support is now seen at 1.1285 and 1.1220. GBP/USD also gave up some of its gains as it declined from 1.4460 to 1.4328. Brexit worries continue to weigh on the Pound and the topside in GBP/USD seems limited ahead of the vote.

USD/JPY price action was choppy. It rallied from 112.25 to 112.65, but quickly reversed gains and fell back to 112.35 and eventually settled in a 112.35-50 range for the rest of the session. Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda was speaking earlier, but did not reveal anything new, so it had no impact on markets.

AUD/USD fell from 0.7670 in the early Asian session to 0.7640 and support is seen at 0.7615 and 0.7590. Meanwhile, NZD/USD almost reached 0.70 yesterday, but ran out of momentum and overnight, it declined to a low of 0.6890. The pair remains bid however and further gains seem likely. The key support levels are 0.6875, 0.6840 and 0.68.

Upcoming Events:

  • 06:00 BST – Japan Housing Starts
  • 07:00 BST – German Retail Sales
  • 07:45 BST – French Consumer Spending
  • 07:45 BST – French PPI
  • 08:00 BST – Spanish CPI
  • 08:55 BST – German Unemployment Change
  • 08:55 BST – German Unemployment Rate
  • 09:30 BST – UK GDP
  • 09:30 BST – UK Current Account
  • 10:00 BST – Italian CPI
  • 10:00 BST – Euro Zone CPI
  • 13:30 BST – US Initial Jobless Claims
  • 13:30 BST – Canadian GDP
  • 14:45 BST – US Chicago PMI
  • 23:30 BST – Australia AIG Manufacturing Index

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