Thursday 21st April: European Open Briefing

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Global Markets:

  • Asian stock markets: Nikkei up 2.65 %, Shanghai Composite gained 0.40 %, Hang Seng rallied 1.15 %, ASX 200 fell 0.35 %
  • Commodities: Gold at $1250 (-0.35 %), Silver at $17.31 (+1.00 %), WTI Oil at $44.38 (+0.45 %), Brent Oil a $45.97 (+0.40 %)
  • Rates: US 10 year yield at 1.85, UK 10 year yield at 1.50, German 10 year yield at 0.17

News & Data:

  • Australia NAB Business Confidence (Q1): 4 (prev rev 5)
  • New Zealand ANZ Consumer Confidence (Apr): 120.0 (prev 118.0)
  • New Zealand ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) Mar: 2.9% (prev rev 1.2%)
  • PBoC Fixes Yuan At 6.4803 (prev 6.4579)
  • Spot Silver Prints Highest Level Since May 2015
  • BoC Gov Poloz: Recent Economic Data Has Been Encouraging On Balance — BBG
  • Poloz: Canada Dollar Decline Not Unique After Oil Drop
  • Poloz: Inflation To Stabilise Around 2% In H2 Of 2017
  • Poloz: Rotation To Non-Energy Economy Could Take 3 Years Or More
  • Venezuelan Oil Minister: Non-OPEC Doha Participants To Observe June OPEC Meet, Oil Prices Will Fall Before Then — RTRS
  • German MoF: Q1 GDP Growth Seen As Dynamic — BBG
  • Soros: China Real Estate Is A Bubble But It Can Feed Itself, March Credit Growth Is Warning Sign — BBG
  • Soros: China Capital Outflow Is Growing Phenomenon
  • Soros: China Yuan Decoupling From USD Can Rebalance Currency
  • Soros: China Yuan Decoupling `Very Positive & Healthy' For The World
  • BHP Sees Slowing Growth In Steel Demand In China – RTRS
  • BHP: Coal & Iron Price Rises Unsustainable, Further Uptick Will Bring More Supply — RTRS

Markets Update:

The big theme in markets in the past 24 hours has been the sharp rally in Oil. The move is largely the result of positioning adjustment, as speculators got caught short and were squeezed. WTI rallied to 44.00 yesterday and traded up to 44.40 in Asia, up almost 7 USD from Monday's low.

This put USD/CAD under renewed pressure and the pair briefly traded below 1.26 yesterday. In Asia, it recovered slightly and rose to 1.2660. AUD/USD is back above 0.78, but is still struggling with 0.7830 resistance. Meanwhile, NZD/USD has found good support at the prior resistance level at 0.6960, although it bounced only to 0.6980 so far.

USD/JPY remains bid amid rising stock markets and is getting close to the 110 level. Bids are expected at 109.50 and 109.20, while offers are noted ahead of 110 and at 110.60.

Upcoming Events:

  • 07:00 BST – Swiss Trade Balance
  • 08:30 BST – Riksbank Rate Decision
  • 09:30 BST – UK Retail Sales
  • 12:45 BST – ECB Rate Decision
  • 13:30 BST – ECB Press Conference
  • 13:30 BST – US Initial Jobless Claims
  • 13:30 BST – US Phily Fed Manufacturing Index
  • 14:00 BST – US House Price Index

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