Thursday 16th July: European Open Briefing

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Global Markets:

  • Asian stock markets: Nikkei up 0.50 %, Shanghai Composite gained 1.00 %, Hang Seng unchanged, ASX rose 0.40 %
  • Commodities: Gold at $1146 (-0.10 %), Silver at $15.06 (+0.10 %), WTI Oil at $52.00 (+1.10 %), Brent Oil at $57.65 (+0.50 %)
  • Rates: US 10 year yield at 2.37, UK 10 year yield at 2.11, German 10 year yield at 0.7

News & Data:

  • New Zealand CPI 0.4 % q/q, Expected: 0.6 %, Previous: -0.3 %
  • New Zealand CPI 0.3 % y/y, Expected: 0.4 %, Previous: 0.1 %
  • New Zealand Business PMI 55.2, Previous: 51.5
  • Australia MI INflation Expectations 3.4 %, Previous: 3.0 %
  • Asian Development Bank lowers China growth forecast to 7.0% in 2015, 6.8% in 2016
  • BoJ Ex Deputy Gov Nishimura: Japan CPI underestimates inflation; BoJ risks sparking upward spiral in inflation: BBG
  • Greek parliament approves bailout measures as Syriza fragments – RTRS
  • Oil prices rise after U.S. stock draw, but outlook still bearish – RTRS
  • Asia shares tip-toe higher as China stocks rise, dollar up on Yellen
  • Treasuries Weaken With Euro After Greek Vote; Asia Stocks Climb – BBG

Markets Update:

Overnight, NZD had the largest move in the FX market, losing 1.20 % against the US Dollar. New Zealand inflation data arrived lower than expected, adding to the already very bearish sentiment. The pair reached a low of 0.6506 and the next major support level lies now at 0.62.

The Canadian Dollar extended losses yesterday after the Bank of Canada unexpectedly cut rates by 25bps. The central bank also lowered its GDP and inflation forecasts. USD/CAD reached a high of 1.2960 yesterday and a break above 1.30 seems just as a matter of time. Good support seen at 1.2830, which will likely attract decent buying interest, should we reach it.

USD/JPY is trading again near 124.00 as the USD is recovering. Decent resistance seen at 124.35/40, but then not much until 125.00.

Upcoming Events:

  • 08:15 BST – Swiss Retail Sales
  • 09:00 BST – Italian Trade Balance
  • 10:00 BST – Euro Zone CPI
  • 10:00 BST – Euro Zone Trade Balance
  • 12:45 BST – ECB Interest Rate Decision
  • 13:30 BST – US Initial Jobless Claims
  • 13:30 BST – ECB Press Conference
  • 15:00 BST – Fed Chair Yellen speaks
  • 15:00 BST – US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
  • 15:00 BST – US NAHB Housing Market Index
  • 19:00 BST – Bank of England Governor Carney speaks

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