Global Markets:
- Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 0.16%, Shanghai Composite down 0.92%, Hang Seng down 1.11%, ASX up 0.71%
- Commodities: Gold at $1511.45 (-0.10%), Silver at $17.60 (-0.15%), Brent Oil at $58.38 (+0.02%), WTI Oil at $52.87 (+0.11%)
- Rates : US 10-year yield at 1.522, UK 10-year yield at 0.440, Germany 10-year yield at -0.591
News & Data:
- (CAD) Ivey PMI 48.7 vs 62.6 expected
- (USD) Trade Balance -54.9B vs -54.7B expected
- (USD) Unemployment Rate 3.50% vs 3.70% expected
- (USD) Non-Farm Employment Change 136K vs 145K expected
- (USD) Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.00% vs 0.30% expected
- (CAD) Trade Balance -1.0B vs -1.1B expected
- (GBP) Housing Equity Withdrawal q/q -6.9B vs -6.5B expected
- (EUR) French Gov Budget Balance -123.1B vs -109.7B previous
- (AUD) Retail Sales m/m 0.40% vs 0.50% expected
- (AUD) HIA New Home Sales m/m 7.30% vs -7.20% previous
- (AUD) AIG Construction Index 42.6 vs 44.6 previous
- (JPY) Leading Indicators 91.70% vs 91.80% expected
- (EUR) German Factory Orders m/m -0.60% vs -0.40% expected
CFTC Positioning Data:
- EUR short 66K vs 61K short last week. Shorts increased by 5K
- GBP short 77K vs 81K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 4K
- JPY long 14K vs 13K long last week. Longs trimmed by 1kK
- CHF short 12k vs 11k short last week. Shorts increased by 1K
- AUD short 52k vs 47k short last week. Shorts increased by 5K
- NZD short 42K vs 45K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 3K
- CAD long 6K vs 5K long last week. Longs increased by 1K.
Markets Update:
Asian shares edged higher on Monday and then fell after data showed the U.S. unemployment rate dropped to the lowest in almost 50 years, easing concerns of a slowdown in the world’s largest economy. Asian shares were cheered by U.S. jobs data on one hand but traders fear trade talks on the other hand.
Sentiment toward the U.S. economy deteriorated sharply much of last week after disappointing data on manufacturing and services suggested the trade war was taking a toll, and more rate cuts would be needed to avert a potential recession in the world’s biggest economy. But a modest September increase in U.S. jobs, announced on Friday, eased some of these concerns and lifted U.S. markets.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.16%. Australian shares were up 0.71%. Japan’s Nikkei stock index opened higher but reversed course and fell 0.16%. Political instability in Hong Kong could hurt market sentiment after China’s army took the unusual step of issuing warnings to anti-government protesters in Hong Kong over the weekend. Hong Kong’s stock market is closed on Monday for a public holiday. Trading will resume on Tuesday. Chinese stocks are also trading 0.92% lower.
The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes rose to 1.522% on Monday compared with its U.S. close of 1.5140% on Friday. Spot gold, an asset often bought during times of uncertainty, fell 0.1% to $1,511.45 per ounce. The yen, also considered a safe-haven asset, edged slightly higher to 106.85 versus the U.S. dollar. U.S. crude was flat at $52.81 a barrel. Brent crude fell 0.02% to $58.38 per barrel. In addition to worries about the global economy, signs of oversupply in the oil market are weighing on futures prices.
Upcoming Events:
Monday, October 07, 2019
- All Day – (CNY) Bank Holiday
- 5:00 am GMT – (JPY) Leading Indicators
- 6:00 am GMT – (EUR) German Factory Orders m/m
- 7:00 am GMT – (CHF) Foreign Currency Reserves
- 7:30 am GMT – (GBP) Halifax HPI m/m
- 8:30 am GMT – (EUR) Sentix Investor Confidence
- 5:00 pm GMT – (USD) Fed Chair Powell Speaks
- 7:00 pm GMT – (USD) Consumer Credit m/m
- 11:01 pm GMT – (GBP) BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y
- 11:30 pm GMT – (JPY) Average Cash Earnings y/y
- 11:30 pm GMT – (JPY) Household Spending y/y
- 11:50 pm GMT – (JPY) Current Account
Tuesday, October 08, 2019
- 12:30 am GMT – (AUD) NAB Business Confidence
- 12:30 am GMT – (AUD) ANZ Job Advertisements m/m
- 1:45 am GMT – (CNY) Caixin Services PMI
- 4:10 am GMT – (GBP) BOE Gov Carney Speaks
- 5:00 am GMT – (JPY) Economy Watchers Sentiment
- 5:45 am GMT – (CHF) Unemployment Rate
- 6:00 am GMT – (EUR) German Industrial Production m/m
- 6:45 am GMT – (EUR) French Trade Balance
- 8:00 am GMT – (EUR) Italian Retail Sales m/m
- 8:20 am GMT – (GBP) MPC Member Haldane Speaks
- 9:30 am GMT – (GBP) MPC Member Tenreyro Speaks
- 10:00 am GMT – (USD) NFIB Small Business Index
- 12:15 pm GMT – (CAD) Housing Starts
- 12:30 pm GMT – (CAD) Building Permits m/m
- 12:30 pm GMT – (USD) Core PPI m/m
- 12:30 pm GMT – (USD) PPI m/m
- Tentative – (USD) IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
- 5:35 pm GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Evans Speaks
- 5:50 pm GMT – (USD) Fed Chair Powell Speaks
- 11:30 pm GMT – (AUD) Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Wednesday, October 09, 2019
- 6:00 am GMT – (JPY) Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y
- 8:30 am GMT – (GBP) FPC Statement
- All Day – (EUR) Eurogroup Meetings
- 2:00 pm GMT – (USD) Final Wholesale Inventories m/m
- 2:00 pm GMT – (USD) JOLTS Job Openings
- 2:30 pm GMT – (USD) Crude Oil Inventories
- 3:00 pm GMT – (USD) Fed Chair Powell Speaks
- 3:00 pm GMT – (USD) FOMC Member George Speaks
- 5:01 pm GMT – (USD) 10-y Bond Auction
- 6:00 pm GMT – (USD) FOMC Meeting Minutes
- Tentative – (USD) Treasury Currency Report
- 9:45 pm GMT – (NZD) FPI m/m
- 11:01 pm GMT – (GBP) RICS House Price Balance
- 11:50 pm GMT – (JPY) Bank Lending y/y
- 11:50 pm GMT – (JPY) Core Machinery Orders m/m
- 11:50 pm GMT – (JPY) PPI y/y
Thursday, October 10, 2019
- 12:30 am GMT – (AUD) Home Loans m/m
- 1:00 am GMT – (AUD) MI Inflation Expectations
- 3:35 am GMT – (JPY) 30-y Bond Auction
- 6:00 am GMT – (EUR) German Trade Balance
- 6:45 am GMT – (EUR) French Industrial Production m/m
- 8:00 am GMT – (EUR) Italian Industrial Production m/m
- 8:30 am GMT – (GBP) GDP m/m
- 8:30 am GMT – (GBP) Manufacturing Production m/m
- 8:30 am GMT – (GBP) Construction Output m/m
- 8:30 am GMT – (GBP) Goods Trade Balance
- 8:30 am GMT – (GBP) Index of Services 3m/3m
- 8:30 am GMT – (GBP) Industrial Production m/m
- 10th-14th GMT – (CNY) New Loans
- 10th-14th GMT – (CNY) M2 Money Supply y/y
- 9:20 am GMT – (GBP) BOE Gov Carney Speaks
- 11:30 am GMT – (EUR) ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
- 12:30 pm GMT – (CAD) NHPI m/m
- 12:30 pm GMT – (USD) CPI m/m
- 12:30 pm GMT – (USD) Core CPI m/m
- 12:30 pm GMT – (USD) Unemployment Claims
- Tentative – (GBP) NIESR GDP Estimate
- 2:30 pm GMT – (USD) Natural Gas Storage
- 5:01 pm GMT – (USD) 30-y Bond Auction
- 9:30 pm GMT – (NZD) Business NZ Manufacturing Index
- 11:50 pm GMT – (JPY) M2 Money Stock y/y
Friday, October 11, 2019
- 6:00 am GMT – (EUR) German Final CPI m/m
- 12th-17th GMT – (CNY) Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y
- Tentative – (All) OPEC-JMMC Meetings
- All Day – (EUR) ECOFIN Meetings
- 12:30 pm GMT – (CAD) Employment Change
- 12:30 pm GMT – (CAD) Unemployment Rate
- 12:30 pm GMT – (USD) Import Prices m/m
- 2:00 pm GMT – (USD) Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
- 2:00 pm GMT – (USD) Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations
- 5:15 pm GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks
- &more…
