Global Markets:
- Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 0.92%, Shanghai Composite down 0.37%, Hang Seng down 0.27%, ASX down 1.19%
- Commodities : Gold at $1314.90 (+0.29%), Silver at $14.58 (+0.10%), Brent Oil at $61.24 (-1.21%), WTI Oil at $53.08 (-0.79%)
- Rates : US 10-year yield at 2.130, UK 10-year yield at 0.887, Germany 10-year yield at -0.199
News & Data:
- (CNY) Caixin Manufacturing PMI 50.2 vs 50 expected
- (AUD) Company Operating Profits q/q 1.70% vs 2.90% expected
- (USD) Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 100 vs 102 expected
- (USD) Chicago PMI 54.2 vs 55.1 expected
- (USD) Personal Spending m/m 0.30% vs 0.20% expected
- (USD) Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.20% vs 0.20% expected
- (CAD) RMPI m/m 5.60% vs 2.30% expected
- (CAD) GDP m/m 0.50% vs 0.40% expected
- (EUR) German Prelim CPI m/m 0.20% vs 0.30% expected
CFTC Positioning Data:
- EUR short 100K vs 101K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 1K
- GBP short 32K vs 26K short last week. Shorts increased by 6K
- JPY short 55K vs 55K short last week. Unchanged
- CHF short 35k vs 37k short last week. Shorts trimmed by 2K
- AUD short 66k vs 66k short last week. Unchanged
- NZD short 16K vs 11K short last week. Shorts increased by 5K
- CAD short 39K vs 42K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 3K
Markets Update:
Asian stock markets are mostly lower on Monday, while the safe-haven yen strengthened following the sell-off on Wall Street Friday as escalating global trade tensions raised worries about global economic growth.
In addition to the U.S.-China trade war, U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to impose a 5 percent tariff on all Mexican imports from June 10 weighed on investor sentiment. Trump also said he has decided to end preferential trade treatment for India from June 5. Factory activity contracted in most Asian countries last month as an escalating trade war between Washington and Beijing raised fears of a global economic downturn and heaped pressure on policymakers in the region and beyond to roll out more stimulus.
Mainland Chinese shares shed earlier gains as they fell by the afternoon, with the Shanghai composite slipping 0.4% and the Shenzhen component declining 1%. Over in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index declined 0.3%. Hong Kong-listed shares of HSBC dropped 1.2%, while life insurer AIA slipped 1.5%.
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 fell 1% in afternoon trade as index heavyweight Fanuc saw its shares drop around 3%. Over in South Korea, the Kospi traded 1.3% higher as shares of industry heavyweight Samsung Electronics and chipmaker SK Hynix gained more than 2% each. In Australia, the ASX 200 slipped 1.2 % as almost all sectors traded down.
Central banks in Australia and India are expected to cut rates this week, with others around the world seen following suit in coming weeks and months. Euro zone activity is expected to shrink as well, while U.S. manufacturing is expected to grow steadily, although economists expect the global malaise to eventually feed back into the U.S. economy. Fed funds rate futures are now almost fully pricing in a rate cut by September, with about 50 percent chance of a move by July 30-31.
Upcoming Events:
Monday, June 03, 2019
- 04:30 AM GMT – (GBP) Manufacturing PMI
- 09:10 AM GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
- 10:00 AM GMT – (USD) ISM Manufacturing PMI
- 01:25 PM GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
- 09:30 PM GMT – (AUD) Retail Sales m/m
- 09:30 PM GMT – (AUD) Current Account
Tuesday, June 04, 2019
- 12:30 AM GMT – (AUD) Cash Rate
- 12:30 AM GMT – (AUD) RBA Rate Statement
- 05:00 AM GMT – (EUR) CPI Flash Estimate y/y
- 05:00 AM GMT – (EUR) Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y
- 05:30 AM GMT – (AUD) RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
- 08:30 AM GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Williams Speaks
- 09:55 AM GMT – (USD) Fed Chair Powell Speaks
- 09:30 PM GMT – (AUD) GDP q/q
Wednesday, June 05, 2019
- 03:45 AM GMT – (GBP) MPC Member Ramsden Speaks
- 04:30 AM GMT – (GBP) Services PMI
- 08:15 AM GMT – (USD) ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
- 09:45 AM GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Clarida Speaks
- 10:00 AM GMT – (USD) ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
- 10:00 AM GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
- 09:30 PM GMT – (AUD) Trade Balance
Thursday, June 06, 2019
- 04:25 AM GMT – (JPY) BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
- 05:00 AM GMT – (GBP) BOE Gov Carney Speaks
- 07:45 AM GMT – (EUR) Monetary Policy Statement
- 07:45 AM GMT – (EUR) Main Refinancing Rate
- 08:30 AM GMT – (CAD) Trade Balance
- 08:30 AM GMT – (EUR) ECB Press Conference
- 01:00 PM GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Williams Speaks
Friday, June 07, 2019
- 08:30 AM GMT – (CAD) Employment Change
- 08:30 AM GMT – (CAD) Unemployment Rate
- 08:30 AM GMT – (USD) Average Hourly Earnings m/m
- 08:30 AM GMT – (USD) Non-Farm Employment Change
- 08:30 AM GMT – (USD) Unemployment Rate
- &more…
