Global Markets:
- Asian stock markets: Nikkei down 0.20 %, Shanghai Composite fell 0.50 %, Hang Seng rose 0.40 %, ASX 200 gained 0.65 %
- Commodities: Gold at $1278 (+0.10 %), Silver at $17.90 (+0.60 %), WTI Oil at $48.50 (-0.40 %), Brent Oil at $50.50 (-0.40 %)
- Rates: US 10 year yield at 1.85, UK 10 year yield at 1.26, German 10 year yield 0.16
News & Data:
- Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep): 0.0% (est 0.90%, prev 1.30%)
- Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (Sep): 0.90% (est 1.90%, prev 4.50%)
- Japan Retail Sales (MoM) Sep: 0.0% (est 0.20%, prev -1.20%)
- Japan Housing Starts (YoY) (Sep): 10.0% (est 5.20%, prev 2.50%)
- Japan Construction Orders (YoY) (Sep): 16.3% (prev 13.80%)
- Australia MI Inflation Gauge (MoM) (oct): 0.20% (prev 0.40%)
- Australia MI Inflation Gauge (YoY) (oct): 1.50% (prev 1.30%)
- Australia Private Sector Credit (MoM) (Sep): 0.40% (est 0.40%, prev 0.40%)
- Australia Housing Credit (Sep): 0.50% (prev 0.50%)
- New Zealand M3 Money Supply YoY (Sep): 4.80% (prev 5.30%)
- UK Lloyds Business Barometer (oct): 37 (prev 24)
- PBOC sets USD/CNY mid-point today at 6.7641 (vs. Friday at 6.7858)
- RBA's Malcolm Edey: Further monetary stimulus may do more harm than good –AFR
CFTC Positioning Data:
- EUR 124K short vs 109K short last week. Shorts increased by 15K
- GBP 84K short vs. 91K short last week. Shorts decreased by 8K
- JPY 45K long vs. 37K long last week. Longs increased by 8K.
- CHF 19K short vs 16K short last week. Shorts increased by 3K
- CAD 13K short vs 14K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 1K
- AUD 32K long vs 30K long last week. Longs increased by 2K.
- NZD 0K vs. 0K last week. No change.
Markets Update:
Overnight, the US Dollar gained against most other major currencies, except the Australian Dollar. AUD/USD rose from 0.7585 at the open to a high of 0.7620 so far, despite weaker than expected inflation gauge data (a private, monthly survey). The RBA will decide on interest rates this week, but is expected to keep rates unchanged. NZD/USD was choppy overnight, as it first gapped lower and opened at 0.7145, then rallied back to 0.7165 and eventually fell to a fresh session low of 0.7138.
The Pound was under pressure ahead of the official open, as there were reports that Bank of England Governor Carney will resign, but the currency retraced losses after the Financial Times released an article in which it said that Carney will not resign. GBP/USD opened at 1.2178 and traded within a 1.2175-1.2215 range in Asia.
USD/JPY gapped lower at the open, and started the new trading week at 104.40 (vs. 104.65 close on Friday). However, it quickly filled the gap and rose to a high of 104.90.
Upcoming Events:
- 07:00 GMT – German Retail Sales
- 10:00 GMT – Euro Zone CPI
- 10:00 GMT – Euro Zone GDP
- 12:30 GMT – US Personal Income
- 12:30 GMT – US Personal Spending
The Week Ahead:
Tuesday, November 1st
- (Tentative) – Bank of Japan Rate Decision
- 01:00 GMT – China Manufacturing PMI
- 01:00 GMT – China Non-Manufacturing PMI
- 03:30 GMT – RBA Rate Decision
- 03:30 GMT – RBA Statement
- 06:30 GMT – Bank of Japan Press Conference
- 09:30 GMT – UK Manufacturing PMI
- 12:30 GMT – Canadian GDP
- 14:00 GMT – US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
- 16:00 GMT – Bank of Canada Governor Poloz speaks
- 16:30 GMT – SNB Chairman Jordan speaks
- 21:45 GMT – New Zealand Employment Change
- 21:45 GMT – New Zealand Unemployment Rate
Wednesday, November 2nd
- 00:30 GMT – Australia Building Approvals
- 02:00 GMT – Australia Inflation Expectations
- 08:45 GMT – Italian Manufacturing PMI
- 08:50 GMT – French Manufacturing PMI
- 08:55 GMT – German Manufacturing PMI
- 08:55 GMT – German Unemployment Rate
- 08:55 GMT – German Employment Change
- 09:00 GMT – Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI
- 09:30 GMT – UK Construction PMI
- 12:15 GMT – US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
- 14:30 GMT – US Crude Oil Inventories
- 18:00 GMT – Federal Reserve Rate Decision
- 18:00 GMT – FOMC Statement
Thursday, November 3rd
- 00:30 GMT – Australia Trade Balance
- 01:45 GMT – China Caixin Services PMI
- 09:30 GMT – UK Services PMI
- 10:00 GMT – Euro Zone Unemployment Rate
- 12:00 GMT – Bank of England Rate Decision
- 12:00 GMT – Bank of England Inflation Report
- 12:00 GMT – Bank of England Meeting Minutes
- 12:30 GMT – US Initial Jobless Claims
- 13:45 GMT – US Services PMI
- 14:00 GMT – US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Friday, November 4th
- 00:30 GMT – Australia Retail Sales
- 00:35 GMT – Bank of Canada Governor Poloz speaks
- 08:45 GMT – Italian Services PMI
- 08:50 GMT – French Services PMI
- 08:55 GMT – German Services PMI
- 09:00 GMT – Euro Zone Services PMI
- 10:00 GMT – Euro Zone PPI
- 12:30 GMT – US NFP
- 12:30 GMT – US Unemployment Rate
- 12:30 GMT – US Average Hourly Earnings
- 12:30 GMT – Canadian Trade Balance
- 12:30 GMT – Canadian Employment Change
- 12:30 GMT – Canadian Unemployment Rate
- 14:00 GMT – Canadian Ivey PMI
- 19:30 GMT – US CFTC Positioning Data
