Global Markets:
- Asian stock markets: Nikkei up 1.22%, Shanghai Composite up 1.30%, Hang Seng up 0.79%, ASX up 0.71%
- Commodities: Gold at $1341.3 (+0.83%), Silver at $16.695 (+1.28%), WTI Oil at $63.83 (+0.44%), Brent Oil at $67.21 (+0.25%)
- Rates: US 10-year yield at 2.857, UK 10-year yield at 1.514, German 10-year yield at 0.651
News & Data:
- (CAD) Trimmed CPI y/y 1.80% vs 1.90% previous
- (CAD) Median CPI y/y 1.90% vs 1.90% previous
- (CAD) Common CPI y/y 1.80% vs 1.60% previous
- (CAD) CPI m/m 0.70% vs 0.40% expected
- (EUR) Final CPI y/y 1.30% vs 1.30% expected
- China paves way for President Xi to extend his rule
- BoJ Gov Kuroda: Will Continue Powerful Monetary Easing To Achieve Price Goal
CFTC Positioning Data (Week Ending February 20th, 2018)
- EUR long 126K vs 128K long last week. Longs trimmed by 2K.
- GBP long 8K vs 15K long last week. Longs trimmed by 7K.
- JPY short 108K vs 115K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 7K.
- CHF short 16K vs 20K short last week. short trimmed by 4K
- CAD long 23K vs 33K long last week. Longs decreased by 10K.
- AUD long 12k vs 9k long last week. Longs increased by 3K.
- NZD long 1K vs 2K short last week. Longs trimmed by 1K.
Markets Update:
Asian markets gained cautiously on Monday, in anticipation of an event packed week. Equities can be seen to strengthen, whereas bond yields are slowly dropping, and there is a broad based weakness in the dollar. However, one has to note that the sentiment is still fragile
Nikkei is off last week’s high, with the yen strengthening and recouping some of the earlier losses. Chinese equities also traded higher, with the PBoC’s liquidity boosts coming in handy. While the removal of presidential term limits might have shocked quite some, in reality, it was mostly expected, and the markets have largely ignored the news.
With oil rallying, energy companies on ASX have been driving the index forward. It is interesting that while rates have lowered, banks on ASX seemed to have found a support.
The Fed’s messaging over the last week, underlined in Friday’s governor’s report has been that it will remain to be gradual in its tightening, even though inflation numbers continue to surprise. This has led to inflation backing off, leading to a broad based pressure on the US dollar.
The euro traded firmer today – near term movements in the Euro will be commanded by the Italian election results and, the Social Democrat’s coalition poll results in Germany, both on Sunday.
Oil continued to rally, supported by the OPEC-led efforts to cut global supplies, as well as the weakened dollar. The cautious sentiment in the market, and the dollar weakness, along with bond yield retreat helped gold’s gains.
Upcoming Events:
Monday, 26th February 2018
- 02:00 PM GMT – (EUR) ECB President Draghi Speaks
- 03:00 PM GMT – (USD) New Home Sales
- 06:00 PM GMT – (GBP) MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks
- 08:15 PM GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
- 09:45 PM GMT – (NZD) Trade Balance
- &more…
Tuesday, 27th February 2018
- All Day – (EUR) German Prelim CPI m/m
- 08:00 AM GMT – (EUR) Spanish Flash CPI y/y
- 09:00 AM GMT – (EUR) M3 Money Supply y/y
- 10:00 AM GMT – (EUR) German Buba President Weidmann Speaks
- 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
- 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Fed Chair Powell Testifies
- 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Durable Goods Orders m/m
- 03:00 PM GMT – (USD) CB Consumer Confidence
Wednesday, 28th February 2018
- 12:00 AM GMT – (NZD) ANZ Business Confidence
- 01:00 AM GMT – (CNY) Manufacturing PMI
- 01:00 AM GMT – (CNY) Non-Manufacturing PMI
- 08:00 AM GMT – (CHF) KOF Economic Barometer
- 09:00 AM GMT – (CHF) Credit Suisse Economic Expectations
- 10:00 AM GMT – (EUR) CPI Flash Estimate y/y
- 10:00 AM GMT – (EUR) Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y
- 01:30 PM GMT – (CAD) RMPI m/m
- 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Prelim GDP q/q
- 02:45 PM GMT – (USD) Chicago PMI
- 03:00 PM GMT – (USD) Pending Home Sales m/m
- 03:30 PM GMT – (USD) Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday, 1st March 2018
- 12:30 AM GMT – (AUD) Private Capital Expenditure q/q
- 01:45 AM GMT – (CNY) Caixin Manufacturing PMI
- 09:30 AM GMT – (GBP) Manufacturing PMI
- 09:30 AM GMT – (GBP) Net Lending to Individuals m/m
- 01:30 PM GMT – (CAD) Current Account
- 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Core PCE Price Index m/m
- 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Personal Spending m/m
- 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Unemployment Claims
- 03:00 PM GMT – (USD) Fed Chair Powell Testifies
- 03:00 PM GMT – (USD) ISM Manufacturing PMI
Friday, 2nd March 2018
- 07:00 AM GMT – (EUR) German Retail Sales m/m
- 08:00 AM GMT – (EUR) Spanish Unemployment Change
- Tentative – (GBP) Prime Minister May Speaks
- 09:30 AM GMT – (GBP) Construction PMI
- 10:00 AM GMT – (GBP) BOE Gov Carney Speaks
- 01:30 PM GMT – (CAD) GDP m/m
- 03:00 PM GMT – (USD) Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
