Monday 25th April: European Open Briefing

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Global Markets:

  • Asian stock markets: Nikkei down 0.75 %, Shanghai Composite fell 0.95 %, Hang Seng declined 0.50 %, ASX 200 closed
  • Commodities: Gold at $1234 (+0.40 %), Silver at $17.00 (+0.55 %), WTI Oil at $43.10 (-1.30 %), Brent Oil at $44.60 (-1.10 %)
  • Rates: US 10 year yield at 1.88, UK 10 year yield at 1.60, German 10 year yield at 0.23

News & Data:

  • Japan PPI Services (YoY) Mar: 0.2% (exp 0.2% prev 0.2%)
  • PBoC Fixes Yuan At 6.5120 (prev 6.4898)
  • Asia stocks, dollar edge lower as markets await Fed, BOJ meetings – RTRS
  • Yen hindered by BOJ easing hopes, pound up after Obama's UK visit – RTRS
  • Oil falls as traders cash in after three weeks of gains – RTRS
  • Fed seen holding rates this week with hike still on horizon – RTRS

CFTC Positioning Data:

  • EUR short 47K vs. 52K short prior week
  • GBP short 55K vs. 51K short prior week
  • JPY long  72K vs 66K long prior week
  • CAD long 7K vs 2K long prior week
  • CHF long 9K vs. 8K long prior week
  • AUD long 44K vs 35K long prior week
  • NZD long 5K vs 4K long prior week

Markets Update:

EUR/USD rose overnight, from 1.1220 at the open to a high of 1.1247. Offers are seen at 1.1280 and 1.13, while bids rest at 1.1215 and ahead of the 1.12 level. GBP/USD rallied to 1.4470 at the open, but gave up its gains later in the session and declined to 1.4430.

USD/JPY retraced after the big rally on Friday and fell from 111.90 at the open to a low of 111.04. Bids are noted at 110.50 and 110.30, while resistance lies at 112.00 and 112.50.

The commodity currencies are slightly weaker. AUD/USD fell from 0.7710 to 0.7690, while NZD/USD declined from 0.6865 to 0.6840. Liquidity was lower than usual overnight as Australian and New Zealand markets were closed for a public holiday.

Upcoming Events:

  • 08:00 BST – Spanish PPI
  • 09:00 BST – German IFO Business Climate
  • 15:00 BST – US New Home Sales
  • 15:30 BST – US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

The Week Ahead:

Tuesday, April 26th

  • 08:30 BST – Swedish PPI
  • 13:30 BST – US Durable Goods Orders
  • 13:55 BST – US Redbook
  • 13:55 BST – Bank of Canada Governor Poloz speaks
  • 14:45 BST – US Services PMI
  • 15:00 BST – US CB Consumer Confidence
  • 15:00 BST – US Richmond Manufacturing Index
  • 21:35 BST – US API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
  • 23:45 BST – New Zealand Trade Balance

Wednesday, April 27th

  • 02:30 BST – Australian CPI
  • 07:00 BST – German GfK Consumer Climate
  • 09:00 BST – Euro Zone M3 Money Supply
  • 09:30 BST – UK GDP
  • 15:00 BST – US Pending Home Sales
  • 15:30 BST – US Crude Oil Inventories
  • 19:00 BST – FOMC Statement
  • 22:00 BST – RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
  • 22:00 BST – RBNZ Statement

Thursday, April 28th

  • 00:30 BST – Japanese CPI
  • 00:30 BST – Japanese Household Spending
  • 00:30 BST – Japanese Unemployment Rate
  • 00:50 BST – Japanese Industrial Production
  • 00:50 BST – Japanese Retail Sales
  • 04:40 BST – Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision
  • 06:00 BST – Bank of Japanese Outlook Report
  • 07:30 BST – Bank of Japan Press Conference
  • 08:00 BST – Spanish CPI
  • 08:30 BST – Swedish Retail Sales
  • 08:55 BST – German Unemployment Change
  • 08:55 BST – German Unemployment Rate
  • 09:00 BST – Norwegian Unemployment Rate
  • 10:00 BST – Euro Zone Consumer Confidence
  • 13:00 BST – German CPI
  • 13:30 BST – US GDP
  • 13:30 BST – US Initial Jobless Claims

Friday, April 29th

  • 02:00 BST – New Zealand Consumer Confidence
  • 02:30 BST – Australian PPI
  • 04:45 BST – RBA Assistant Governor Debelle speaks
  • 06:30 BST – French GDP
  • 07:00 BST – German Retail Sales
  • 07:45 BST – French CPI
  • 08:00 BST – Spanish GDP
  • 09:00 BST – SNB Chairman Jordan speaks
  • 10:00 BST – Italian CPI
  • 10:00 BST – Euro Zone CPI
  • 11:30 BST – FOMC Member Kaplan speaks
  • 13:00 BST – BoE Member Cunliffe speaks
  • 13:30 BST – US Core PCE Price Index
  • 13:30 BST – US Personal Spending
  • 13:30 BST – US Personal Income
  • 13:30 BST – Canadian GDP
  • 14:45 BST – US Chicago PMI
  • 15:00 BST – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment
  • 20:30 BST – US CFTC Positioning Data

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