Global Markets:
- Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 0.33%, Shanghai Composite down 0.82%, Hang Seng down 0.84%, ASX down 0.17%
- Commodities: Gold at $1427.45 (+0.05%), Silver at $16.38 (+1.13%), Brent Oil at $63.45 (+1.57%), WTI Oil at $56.38 (+1.35%)
- Rates : US 10-year yield at 2.055, UK 10-year yield at 0.736, Germany 10-year yield at -0.317
News & Data:
- (USD) Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 2.60% vs 2.70% previous
- (USD) Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 98.4 vs 98.6 expected
- (CAD) Retail Sales m/m -0.10% vs 0.30% expected
- (CAD) Core Retail Sales m/m -0.30% vs 0.30% expected
- (GBP) Public Sector Net Borrowing 6.5B vs 3.4B expected
- (EUR) Current Account 29.7B vs 21.2B expected
- (EUR) German PPI m/m -0.40% vs -0.10% expected
- (JPY) All Industries Activity m/m 0.30% vs 0.30% expected
- (NZD) Credit Card Spending y/y 6.60% vs 6.70% previous
- Federal Reserve officials lay out case for aggressive rate cuts
CFTC Positioning Data:
- EUR short 31K vs 36K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 5K
- GBP short 76K vs 73K short last week. Shorts increased by 3K
- JPY short 11K vs 4K short last week. Short increased by 7K
- CHF short 12k vs 10k short last week. Shorts increased by 2K
- AUD short 53k vs 54k short last week. Shorts trimmed by 1K
- NZD short 17K vs 22K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 5K
- CAD long 21K vs 9K long last week. Longs increased by 11K
Markets Update:
Asian shares are lower on Monday after Wall Street ended lower last week as investors continue to watch for what may be in store for U.S. interest rates. Momentum for U.S. stocks has slowed since early June, when they began soaring on expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates for the first time in a decade to ensure the U.S. economy doesn’t succumb to weaknesses abroad. The Fed’s next meeting is scheduled for the end of this month. The markets saw some gain post that but gave back those gains on Friday, after the New York Fed walked back Williams’ comments by saying his speech was not about potential policy action at the upcoming Fed meeting.
The Shanghai Composite Index is down 0.8%, but all eyes are on the debt of China’s new Nasdaq-style STAR tech board. It had a wild opening day as expected, with most firms surging and circuit breakers popping in early trade, thanks to massive oversubscription in IPO shares by retail investors.
Trading in the new market is expected to be volatile in the early going. Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.3% on the more tempered Fed easing views and caution ahead of the domestic earnings season which starts this week. Hang Seng slipped 0.84% while Australia’s ASX 200 bounced between slight gains and losses and closed 0.17% down.
The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields rose on the greater likelihood of a shallower rate cut. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield stretched Friday’s modest gains and climbed to 2.055%. Growing Middle East tensions following Iran’s seizure of a British tanker lifted crude oil prices. WTI added 1.35% to $56.38 a barrel while Brent crude, the international standard, rose 95 cents to $63.45 per barrel.
The dollar rose to 107.99 Japanese yen from 107.60 yen Friday. Gold slipped from a six-year high as the dollar firmed and as expectations for a deep rate cut by the Fed were dialled back. Spot gold traded at $1,427.45 an ounce after going as high as $1,452.60 on Friday, its strongest since May 2013.
Upcoming Events:
Monday, July 22, 2019
- 10:00 am GMT – (EUR) German Buba Monthly Report
- 12:30 pm GMT – (CAD) Wholesale Sales m/m
- 3:00 pm GMT – (JPY) BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
- 10:30 pm GMT – (AUD) RBA Assist Gov Kent Speaks
Tuesday, July 23, 2019
- 5:00 am GMT – (JPY) BOJ Core CPI y/y
- 10:00 am GMT – (GBP) CBI Industrial Order Expectations
- Tentative – (GBP) 10-y Bond Auction
- 1:00 pm GMT – (USD) HPI m/m
- 2:00 pm GMT – (USD) Existing Home Sales
- 2:00 pm GMT – (USD) Richmond Manufacturing Index
- 2:30 pm GMT – (AUD) CB Leading Index m/m
- 10:45 pm GMT – (NZD) Trade Balance
- 11:00 pm GMT – (AUD) Flash Manufacturing PMI
- 11:00 pm GMT – (AUD) Flash Services PMI
Wednesday, July 24, 2019
- 12:30 am GMT – (JPY) Flash Manufacturing PMI
- 7:15 am GMT – (EUR) French Flash Services PMI
- 7:15 am GMT – (EUR) French Flash Manufacturing PMI
- 7:30 am GMT – (EUR) German Flash Manufacturing PMI
- 7:30 am GMT – (EUR) German Flash Services PMI
- 8:00 am GMT – (EUR) Flash Manufacturing PMI
- 8:00 am GMT – (EUR) Flash Services PMI
- 8:00 am GMT – (EUR) M3 Money Supply y/y
- 8:00 am GMT – (EUR) Private Loans y/y
- 8:30 am GMT – (GBP) High Street Lending
- 1:00 pm GMT – (CNY) CB Leading Index m/m
- 1:00 pm GMT – (EUR) Belgian NBB Business Climate
- 1:45 pm GMT – (USD) Flash Manufacturing PMI
- 1:45 pm GMT – (USD) Flash Services PMI
- 2:00 pm GMT – (USD) New Home Sales
- 2:30 pm GMT – (USD) Crude Oil Inventories
- 11:50 pm GMT – (JPY) SPPI y/y
Thursday, July 25, 2019
- 3:05 am GMT – (AUD) RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
- 7:00 am GMT – (EUR) Spanish Unemployment Rate
- 8:00 am GMT – (EUR) German Ifo Business Climate
- 10:00 am GMT – (GBP) CBI Realized Sales
- 11:45 am GMT – (EUR) Main Refinancing Rate
- 11:45 am GMT – (EUR) Monetary Policy Statement
- 12:30 pm GMT – (EUR) ECB Press Conference
- 12:30 pm GMT – (USD) Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
- 12:30 pm GMT – (USD) Durable Goods Orders m/m
- 12:30 pm GMT – (USD) Goods Trade Balance
- 12:30 pm GMT – (USD) Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m
- 12:30 pm GMT – (USD) Unemployment Claims
- 2:30 pm GMT – (USD) Natural Gas Storage
- 11:30 pm GMT – (JPY) Tokyo Core CPI y/y
Friday, July 26, 2019
- 6:00 am GMT – (EUR) German Import Prices m/m
- 12:30 pm GMT – (USD) Advance GDP q/q
- 12:30 pm GMT – (USD) Advance GDP Price Index q/q
Saturday, July 27, 2019
- 12:30 pm GMT – ()
Sunday, July 28, 2019
- 11:50 pm GMT – (JPY) Retail Sales y/y
- &more…
