Global Markets:
- Asian stock markets: Nikkei down 0.21%, Shanghai Composite up 0.16 %, Hang Seng gained 0.16 %, ASX down 0.23%
- Commodities: Gold at $1330.90 (-0.17%), Silver at $17.00 (-0.21%), WTI Oil at $63.41 (+0.16 %), Brent Oil at $68.78 (+0.25 %)
- Rates: US 10-year yield at 2.650, UK 10-year yield at 1.342, German 10-year yield at 0.576
News & Data:
- (EUR) German PPI m/m 0.2% vs 0.2% expected
- (CHF) PPI m/m 0.2% vs 0.4% expected
- (EUR) Current Account 32.5B vs 31.3B expected
- (GBP) Retail Sales m/m -1.5% vs -0.8% expected
- (CAD) Foreign Securities Purchases 19.56B vs 15.76B expected
- (CAD) Manufacturing Sales m/m 3.4% vs 1.9% expected
- (USD) Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 94.4 vs 97 expected
- (USD) Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 2.8% vs 2.7% previous
- Shutdown to enter a third day as Senate plans to vote Monday after failing to reach deal
- Dollar sags on U.S. government shutdown, losses limited for now
- Russia and OPEC agree to output cuts till end of the year
CFTC Positioning Data (Week ending Jan 16, 2017)
- EUR long 139K vs 145K last week. Longs decreased by 6K
- GBP long 26K vs 26K long last week. No change.
- JPY short 119K vs 126K short last week. Shorts decreased by 7K
- CHF short 21K vs 22K short last week. Shorts decreased by 1K
- CAD long 18K vs 17K long last week. Longs increased by 1K.
- AUD long 10K vs 5K short last week. Longs increase by 5K
- NZD short 8K vs 11K short last week. Shorts decreased by 3K
Markets Update:
The momentum seen last week in Asian markets was missing in today’s trading, as investors tried to assess the impact of the US shutdown. Asian markets exhibited a mixed sentiment, while S&P 500 futures were downwards. However, analysts opine that the effect should be limited as the rally has been driven by ‘broadening economic growth and profit expansion’. Also, the fiscal debt ceiling which is more relevant to equity markets, is not in the picture this time around.
The Yen and USD have both strengthened over the weekend. The USD has been driven by anticipation of possible hawkish remarks from the Fed. The US yields also exhibited a similar upward move, as near term inflation expectations are significantly higher.
While the Euro had gained on SDP’s willingness to create an alliance in Germany, thereby securing Merkel her fourth term, bringing to an end uncertainty of months, it pared its gains later on. Chinese yuan rose today on solid economic data, and is now trading at the significant 6.4 level against the USD.
While yields across Europe were driving by the news of ECB planning to end its asset purchase program in September, recent reports that it may not, have led to a decline in Bund yields. The central bank decisions later this week will provide clarity on the situation.
Upcoming Events:
Monday, January 22
- All Day GMT – (EUR) Eurogroup Meetings
- 11:00 AM GMT – (EUR) German Buba Monthly Report
- 01:30 PM GMT – (CAD) Wholesale Sales m/m
Tuesday, January 23
- Tentative – (JPY) Monetary Policy Statement; BOJ Outlook Report; BOJ Policy Rate
- 04:30 AM GMT – (JPY) All Industries Activity m/m
- 06:30 AM GMT – (JPY) BOJ Press Conference
- 09:30 AM GMT – (GBP) Public Sector Net Borrowing
- 10:00 AM GMT – (EUR) German ZEW Economic Sentiment
- 10:00 AM GMT – (EUR) ZEW Economic Sentiment
- All Day – (EUR) ECOFIN Meetings
- 11:00 AM GMT – (GBP) CBI Industrial Order Expectations
- 03:00 PM GMT – (EUR) Consumer Confidence
- 03:00 PM GMT – (USD) Richmond Manufacturing Index
- 11:30 PM GMT – (AUD) MI Leading Index m/m
- 11:50 PM GMT – (JPY) Trade Balance
Wednesday, January 24
- 12:30 AM GMT – (JPY) Flash Manufacturing PMI
- 02:00 AM GMT – (NZD) Credit Card Spending y/y
- 08:00 AM GMT – (EUR) French Flash Manufacturing PMI ; French Flash Services PMI
- 08:30 AM GMT – (EUR) German Flash Manufacturing PMI; German Flash Services PMI
- 09:00 AM GMT – (EUR) Flash Manufacturing PMI; Flash Services PMI
- 09:30 AM GMT – (GBP) Average Earnings Index 3m/y; Claimant Count Change; Unemployment Rate
- 02:00 PM GMT – (USD) HPI m/m
- 02:45 PM GMT – (USD) Flash Manufacturing PMI
- 02:45 PM GMT – (USD) Flash Services PMI
- 03:00 PM GMT – (USD) Existing Home Sales
- 03:30 PM GMT – (AUD) CB Leading Index m/m
- 03:30 PM GMT – (USD) Crude Oil Inventories
- 09:45 PM GMT – (NZD) CPI q/q
Thursday, January 25
- 07:00 AM GMT – (EUR) German GfK Consumer Climate
- 08:00 AM GMT – (EUR) Spanish Unemployment Rate
- 09:00 AM GMT – (EUR) German Ifo Business Climate
- 09:30 AM GMT – (GBP) High Street Lending
- 11:00 AM GMT – (GBP) CBI Realized Sales
- 12:45 PM GMT – (EUR) Minimum Bid Rate
- 01:30 PM GMT – (CAD) Core Retail Sales m/m; Retail Sales m/m
- 01:30 PM GMT – (EUR) ECB Press Conference
- 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Unemployment Claims
- 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Goods Trade Balance
- 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m
- 02:00 PM GMT – (EUR) Belgian NBB Business Climate
- 03:00 PM GMT – (USD) New Home Sales
- 03:00 PM GMT – (USD) CB Leading Index m/m
- 03:30 PM GMT – (USD) Natural Gas Storage
- 11:30 PM GMT – (JPY) National Core CPI y/y
- 11:30 PM GMT – (JPY) Tokyo Core CPI y/y
- 11:50 PM GMT – (JPY) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
- 11:50 PM GMT – (JPY) SPPI y/y
Friday, January 26
- 09:00 AM GMT – (EUR) M3 Money Supply y/y; Private Loans y/y
- 09:30 AM GMT – (GBP) Prelim GDP q/q
- 09:30 AM GMT – (GBP) Index of Services 3m/3m
- 01:30 PM GMT – (CAD) CPI m/m; Common CPI y/y; Median CPI y/y; Trimmed CPI y/y; Core CPI m/m
- 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Advance GDP q/q; Advance GDP Price Index q/q
- 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Core Durable Goods Orders m/m; Durable Goods Orders m/m
- 02:00 PM GMT – (CNY) CB Leading Index m/m
- 02:00 PM GMT – (GBP) BOE Gov Carney Speaks
- 02:00 PM GMT – (JPY) BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
- &more…
