Monday 21st March: European Open Briefing

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Global Markets:

  • Asian stock markets: Shanghai Composite gained 1.80 %, Hang Seng rose 0.15 %, ASX 200 fell 0.25 %, Nikkei closed for holiday
  • Commodities: Gold at $1252 (-0.20 %), Silver at $15.84 (+0.15 %), WTI Oil at $40.66 (-1.20 %), Brent Oil at $40.90 (-0.75 %)
  • Rates: US 10 year yield at 1.88, UK 10 year yield at 1.45, German 10 year yield at 0.21

News & Data:

  • China MNI Business Indicator Mar: 49.9 (prev. 49.9)
  • New Zealand Credit Card Spending (MoM) Feb: -0.4% (prev. 2.30%)
  • New Zealand Credit Card Spending (YoY) Feb: 7.3% (prev. 8.90%)
  • Australian PM Turnbull: Any early election would be held on July 2
  • Asian stocks slip as oil skids; China up – RTRS
  • Yen finds favour as Asia's appetite for risk wanes – RTRS

CFTC Positioning Data:

  • EUR short 78K vs. 72K short prior week
  • GBP short 14K vs. 49K short prior week
  • JPY long 46K vs. 64K long prior week
  • CAD short 17K vs. 26K short prior week
  • CHF long 5K vs.  0.1K short prior week
  • AUD long 13K vs. 29K long prior week
  • NZD long 1K vs. 2K short prior week

Markets Update:

The US Dollar rose against most major currencies overnight, as a risk averse sentiment prevailed in Asian markets. EUR/USD started the day around 1.1256, roughly 14 pips lower from Friday's close. It then rallied to 1.1285, but momentum waned there and it fell back below 1.1270. Meanwhile, GBP/USD declined to a low of 1.4435, down 40 pips from Friday's close. AUD/USD opened around 0.76 and came under pressure in the mid-session as stocks opened lower and commodities fell. The pair fell to a low of 0.7568, but found support there and climbed back towards 0.76. USD/JPY started the new trading week at 111.56 and fell to a low of 111.23 after the Hong Kong open. From there, it was able to bounce and it rose back to 111.55, where the pair is currently consolidating.

Upcoming Events:

  • 09:00 GMT – Euro Zone Current Account
  • 14:00 GMT – US Existing Home Sales
  • 16:40 GMT – FOMC Member Lockhart speaks

The Week Ahead:

Tuesday, March 22nd

  • 00:30 GMT – Australia House Price Index
  • 02:00 GMT – Japan Manufacturing PMI
  • 05:30 GMT – RBA Governor Stevens speaks
  • 08:00 GMT – French Manufacturing PMI
  • 08:00 GMT – French Services PMI
  • 08:30 GMT – German Manufacturing PMI
  • 08:30 GMT – German Services PMI
  • 09:00 GMT – Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI
  • 09:00 GMT – Euro Zone Services PMI
  • 09:30 GMT – UK CPI
  • 10:00 GMT – German ZEW Economic Sentiment
  • 10:00 GMT – Euro Zone ZEW Economic Sentiment
  • 13:00 GMT – US House Price Index
  • 13:45 GMT – US Manufacturing PMI
  • 14:00 GMT – US Richmond Manufacturing Index

Wednesday, March 23rd

  • 14:00 GMT – US New Home Sales
  • 14:30 GMT – US Crude Oil Inventories
  • 21:45 GMT – New Zealand Trade Balance

Thursday, March 24th

  • 07:00 GMT – German GfK Consumer Climate
  • 09:30 GMT – UK Retail Sales
  • 12:30 GMT – US Core Durable Goods Orders
  • 12:30 GMT – US Initial Jobless Claims
  • 13:45 GMT – US Services PMI
  • 23:30 GMT – Japan CPI

Friday, March 25th

  • 06:30 GMT – French GDP
  • 12:30 GMT – US GDP

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