Global Markets:
- Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 0.51%, ASX down 0.71%
- Commodities : Gold at $1192.80 (-0.28%), Silver at $14.64 (-0.49%), Brent Oil at $83.16 (+0.52%), WTI Oil at $73.50 (+0.34%)
- Rates : US 10-year yield at 3.074, UK 10-year yield at 1.576, Germany 10-year yield at 0.474
News & Data:
- (CNY) Non-Manufacturing PMI 54.9 vs 54.1 expected
- (CNY) Manufacturing PMI 50.8 vs 51.2 expected
- (USD) Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 100.1 vs 100.5 expected
- (USD) Chicago PMI 60.4 vs 62.3 expected
- (USD) Personal Spending m/m 0.30% vs 0.30% expected
- (USD) Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.00% vs 0.10% expected
- (CAD) RMPI m/m -4.60% vs 0.80% expected
- (CAD) GDP m/m 0.20% vs 0.10% expected
- (EUR) Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y 0.90% vs 1.10% expected
- (EUR) CPI Flash Estimate y/y 2.10% vs 2.10% expected
- (GBP) Final GDP q/q 0.40% vs 0.40% expected
- (GBP) Current Account -20.3B vs -19.4B expected
- (EUR) Spanish Flash CPI y/y 2.20% vs 2.20% expected
- (CHF) KOF Economic Barometer 102.2 vs 100.1 expected
- Canada, U.S. reach NAFTA deal, Canadian officials say
- Mexican Ministry is said to plan publishing NAFTA deal tonight – Bloomberg
CFTC Positioning Data (Week Ending Sep 25th, 2018):
- EUR long 4K vs 2K long last week. Longs increased by 2K
- GBP short 67K vs 79K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 12K
- JPY short 85K vs 64K short last week. Shorts increased 21K
- CHF short 16K vs 18K short last week. Shorts trimmed 2K
- CAD short 20K vs 30K short last week. Shorts trimmed 10K
- AUD short 72k vs 68k short last week. Shorts increased by 4K
- NZD short 32K vs 32K short last week. no change
Markets Update:
Asian stock markets are mixed on Monday following the lackluster cues from Wall Street Friday and as investors digested mixed regional economic data, including data showing a slowdown in China's manufacturing sector in September. Investors also digested media reports that the U.S. and Canada have reached an agreement on a framework North American Free Trade Agreement deal. The markets in China are closed for holidays the entire week, while Hong Kong is also closed on Monday.
The Nikkei 225 continued its advance higher by 0.5 percent while the Topix recovered to trade largely flat in the afternoon, as major automakers such as Toyota and Nissan continued to see declines. The moves in Tokyo came on the back of the release of a survey conducted by the Bank of Japan which showed business confidence among the country's big manufacturers falling for the third consecutive quarter.
Down Under, the ASX 200 slipped by 0.71 percent, with most sectors still trading in negative territory. Mining stocks are weak despite higher commodity prices, while banks are among the major losers amid calls to extend the banking royal commission.
As risk appetites improved, the yen softened 0.2 percent to 113.96 per dollar, its lowest since mid-November last year. The euro was hit by worries about a rise in Italy's fiscal deficit after the Italian government agreed to set a higher than expected budget deficit target that could put Rome on a collision course with Brussels. Oil prices gained, with international benchmark Brent hitting a four-year high, as U.S. sanctions on Tehran squeezed Iranian crude exports, tightening supply even as other key exporters increased production.
Upcoming Events:
Monday, October 1st 2018
- 07:00 AM GMT – (EUR) German Retail Sales m/m
- 09:30 AM GMT – (GBP) Manufacturing PMI
- 09:30 AM GMT – (GBP) Net Lending to Individuals m/m
- 02:00 PM GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
- 03:00 PM GMT – (USD) ISM Manufacturing PMI
- 06:00 PM GMT – (CAD) Gov Council Member Lane Speaks
- Tentative – (NZD) NZIER Business Confidence
Tuesday, October 2nd 2018
- 05:30 AM GMT – (AUD) RBA Rate Statement
- 05:30 AM GMT – (AUD) Cash Rate
- 09:30 AM GMT – (GBP) Construction PMI
- 03:00 PM GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
- Tentative – (NZD) GDT Price Index
- 05:45 PM GMT – (USD) Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Wednesday, October 3rd 2018
- 02:30 AM GMT – (AUD) Building Approvals m/m
- 09:30 AM GMT – (GBP) Services PMI
- Tentative – (USD) FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
- 01:15 PM GMT – (USD) ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
- 03:00 PM GMT – (USD) ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
- 03:30 PM GMT – (USD) Crude Oil Inventories
- 07:00 PM GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Brainard Speaks
- 07:15 PM GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Mester Speaks
- 09:00 PM GMT – (USD) Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Thursday, October 4th 2018
- 02:30 AM GMT – (AUD) Trade Balance
- 02:15 PM GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
- 03:00 PM GMT – (CAD) Ivey PMI
Friday, October 5th 2018
- 01:00 AM GMT – (JPY) Average Cash Earnings y/y
- 02:30 AM GMT – (AUD) Retail Sales m/m
- 01:30 PM GMT – (CAD) Employment Change
- 01:30 PM GMT – (CAD) Trade Balance
- 01:30 PM GMT – (CAD) Unemployment Rate
- 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Average Hourly Earnings m/m
- 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Non-Farm Employment Change
- 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Unemployment Rate
- 05:40 PM GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
