Monday 1st February: European Open Briefing

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Global Markets:

  • Asian stock markets: Nikkei up 1.70 %, Shanghai Composite fell 1.80 %, Hang Seng declined 0.95 %, ASX gained 0.70 %
  • Commodities: Gold at $1122 (+0.50 %), Silver at $14.30 (+0.45 %), WTI Oil at $33.10 (-1.55 %), Brent Oil at $35.35 (-1.75 %)
  • Rates: US 10 year yield at 1.91, UK 10 year yield at 1.57, German 10 year yield at 0.33

News & Data:

  • China Official Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jan): 53.5 (prev 54.4)
  • China Official Manufacturing PMI (Jan): 49.4 (exp 49.6 prev 49.7)
  • China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jan): 48.4 (exp 48.1 prev 48.2)
  • PBoC Fixes Yuan Reference Rate At 6.5539 (prev 6.5516)
  • Japan Nikkei Manufacturing PMI (Jan, F): 52.3 (flash 52.4)
  • Japan Vehicle Sales (YoY) Jan: 0.2% (prev 3.1%)
  • Australia AiG PMI (Jan): 51.5 (prev 51.9)
  • Australia TD Securities Inflation (MoM) Jan: 0.4% (prev 0.2%)
  • Australia TD Securities Inflation (YoY) Jan: 2.3% (prev 2.0%)
  • India Nikkei Manufacturing PMI (Jan): 51.1 (prev 49.1)
  • South Korea Nikkei Manufacturing PMI (Jan): 49.5 (prev 50.7)

CFTC Positioning Data:

  • EUR short 127K vs. 137K short prior week
  • GBP short 47K vs. 39K short prior week.
  • JPY long 50K vs. 38K long prior week.
  • CAD short 67K vs. 66K short prior week.
  • CHF short 4K vs. 1K long prior week.
  • AUD short 33K vs. 36K short prior week.
  • NZD short 5K vs. 3K short prior week.

Markets Update:

The US Dollar weakened slightly overnight. EUR/USD started the new trading week at 1.0815 and managed to recover to 1.0850, while GBP/USD rose from 1.4230 to a high of 1.4265. Meanwhile, USD/JPY remained well bid along with the Nikkei. It opened around 121.15 in Sydney and consolidated in a 121.10-50 range.

The Aussie Dollar fell after weaker than expected Chinese PMI data, but eventually recovered and made it back to 0.7085. Similar price action was seen in NZD/USD, which fell to 0.6450 in the early Asian session, but then rose back to 0.6485.

Upcoming Events:

  • 08:15 GMT – Spanish Manufacturing PMI
  • 08:45 GMT – Italian Manufacturing PMI
  • 08:50 GMT – French Manufacturing PMI
  • 08:55 GMT – German Manufacturing PMI
  • 09:00 GMT – Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI
  • 09:30 GMT – UK Manufacturing PMI
  • 13:30 GMT – US Personal Income
  • 13:30 GMT – US Personal Spending
  • 13:30 GMT – US Core PCE Price Index
  • 14.45 GMT – US Manufacturing PMI
  • 15:00 GMT – US ISM Manufacturing PMI
  • 16:00 GMT – ECB President Draghi speaks
  • 18:00 GMT – FOMC Member Fischer speaks

 

The Week Ahead:

Tuesday, February 2nd

  • 03:30 GMT – RBA Interest Rate Decision
  • 03:30 GMT – RBA Monetary Policy Statement
  • 08:15 GMT – Swiss Retail Sales
  • 08:55 GMT – German Employment Change
  • 08:55 GMT – German Unemployment Rate
  • 09:30 GMT – UK Construction PMI
  • 10:00 GMT – SNB Chairman Jordan speaks
  • 10:00 GMT – Euro Zone Unemployment Rate
  • 18:00 GMT – FOMC Member George speaks
  • 21:45 GMT – New Zealand Employment Change
  • 21:45 GMT – New Zealand Unemployment Rate
  • 23:45 GMT – RBNZ Governor Wheeler speaks

Wednesday, February 3rd

  • 00:30 GMT – Australian Trade Balance
  • 04:30 GMT – Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda speaks
  • 08:15 GMT – Spanish Services PMI
  • 08:45 GMT – Italian Services PMI
  • 08:50 GMT – French Services PMI
  • 08:55 GMT – German Services PMI
  • 09:00 GMT – Euro Zone Services PMI
  • 09:30 GMT – UK Services PMI
  • 10:00 GMT – Italian CPI
  • 10:00 GMT – Euro Zone Retail Sales
  • 13:15 GMT – US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
  • 14:45 GMT – US Services PMI
  • 15:00 GMT – US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
  • 15:30 GMT – US Crude Oil Inventories

Thursday, February 4th

  • 00:30 GMT – Australian NAB Business Confidence
  • 08:00 GMT – ECB President Draghi speaks
  • 12:00 GMT – Bank of England Interest Rate Decision
  • 12:00 GMT – Bank of England Meeting Minutes
  • 12:45 GMT – Bank of England Governor Carney speaks
  • 13:30 GMT – US Initial Jobless Claims
  • 15:00 GMT – US Factory Orders

Friday, February 5th

  • 00:30 GMT – Australian Retail Sales
  • 05:00 GMT – Japanese Leading Index
  • 07:45 GMT – French Trade Balance
  • 13:30 GMT – US Nonfarm Payrolls
  • 13:30 GMT – US Average Hourly Earnings
  • 13:30 GMT – US Unemployment Rate
  • 13:30 GMT – Canadian Trade Balance
  • 15:00 GMT – Canadian Ivey PMI

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