Global Markets:
- Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 0.62%, Shanghai Composite up 0.57%, Hang Seng up 0.22%, ASX down 0.64%
- Commodities : Gold at $1219.10 (-0.32%), Silver at $14.35 (-0.26%), Brent Oil at $67.22 (+0.69%), WTI Oil at $57.27 (+1.04%)
- Rates : US 10-year yield at 3.070, UK 10-year yield at 1.414, Germany 10-year yield at 0.373
News & Data:
- (USD) TIC Long-Term Purchases 30.8B vs 46.2B expected
- (AUD) CB Leading Index m/m -0.10% vs 0.20% previous
- (GBP) CB Leading Index m/m -0.40% vs -0.20% previous
- (USD) Industrial Production m/m 0.10% vs 0.20% expected
- (USD) Capacity Utilization Rate 78.40% vs 78.30% expected
- Asia covenant quality falls to all-time weakest level on Chinese property bonds
- Australia focuses on Pacific after APEC meeting ends in disagreement
CFTC Positioning Data:
For leveraged funds positioning:
- EUR net short, fell by 9,708 contracts to 93,037
- JPY net short increased by 10,266 contracts to 69,863
- GBP from net short of 16K odd contracts, the previous week to now a net long 1,829
- CHF net short down 142 contracts to 5,948
- CAD net short, down 693 contracts to 9,206
- AUD net short reduced by 3,572 contracts to 22,534
- NZD net short down by 866 contracts to 17,410
For asset manager positions:
- EUR net long +9,171 contracts to 143,526 (i.e. net long increased by 9171 contracts)
- JPY net short +5,585 contracts to 21,795
- GBP net short +2,838 contracts to 45,390
- CHF net short +702 contracts to 13,492
- CAD net long -268 contracts to 8,705
- AUD net short -4,117 contracts to 33,596
- NZD net short -4,270 contracts to 3,247
Markets Update:
Share markets turned mixed in Asia on Monday amid conflicting signals on the prospects for a truce in the Sino-U.S. trade dispute, while the Federal Reserve's newly-found concerns over the global economy constrained the dollar. Investors also reacted cautiously to news that for the first time in the history of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation or APEC, leaders from 21 Asia-Pacific nations failed to agree on a post-summit communiqué after the weekend's summit in Papua New Guinea
The Australian market is declining following the mixed cues from Wall Street and on worries about U.S.-China trade tensions as well as Brexit. The Chinese markets, which have been closely watched due to the trade fight between Washington and Beijing, were volatile at the end of the morning session.
The Shanghai composite saw gains of 0.57 percent while the Shenzhen composite gained 0.4 percent after slipping 0.3 percent earlier in the day. Meanwhile, Hong Kong's Hang Seng index advanced 0.22 percent. Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 0.62 percent in afternoon trade while the Topix index saw gains of 0.45 percent.
Federal Reserve policymakers are still signaling rate increases ahead but also sounded more concerned about a potential global slowdown, leading markets to suspect the tightening cycle may not have much further to run. Investors have already lengthened the odds on further hikes, with a December move now priced at 73 percent, down from over 90 percent. Futures imply rates around 2.74 percent for the end of next year, compared to 2.93 percent early this month.
Oil prices suffered their sixth straight week of losses last week, but have found some aid from expectations the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries would cut output.
Upcoming Events:
Tuesday, November 20, 2018
- 01:30 AM GMT – (AUD) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
- 04:30 AM GMT – (JPY) BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
- 09:20 AM GMT – (AUD) RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
- Tentative – (All) OPEC-JMMC Meetings
- 11:00 AM GMT – (GBP) Inflation Report Hearings
- 02:30 PM GMT – (USD) Building Permits
- 02:30 PM GMT – (USD) Housing Starts
- 04:00 PM GMT – (EUR) German Buba President Weidmann Speaks
- 06:45 PM GMT – (CAD) Gov Council Member Wilkins Speaks
- 11:00 PM GMT – (CAD) Gov Council Member Lane Speaks
Wednesday, November 21, 2018
- 10:30 AM GMT – (GBP) Public Sector Net Borrowing
- 02:30 PM GMT – (USD) Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
- 02:30 PM GMT – (USD) Durable Goods Orders m/m
- 04:00 PM GMT – (USD) Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
- 04:30 PM GMT – (USD) Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday, November 22, 2018
- 01:30 PM GMT – (EUR) ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
- 03:45 PM GMT – (CAD) Gov Council Member Wilkins Speaks
- 09:55 PM GMT – (GBP) MPC Member Saunders Speaks
Friday, November 23, 2018
- 09:15 AM GMT – (EUR) French Flash Manufacturing PMI
- 09:15 AM GMT – (EUR) French Flash Services PMI
- 09:30 AM GMT – (EUR) German Flash Manufacturing PMI
- 09:30 AM GMT – (EUR) German Flash Services PMI
- 10:00 AM GMT – (EUR) Flash Manufacturing PMI
- 12:00 AM GMT – (EUR) Flash Services PMI
- 02:30 PM GMT – (CAD) CPI m/m
- 02:30 PM GMT – (CAD) Core Retail Sales m/m
- 02:30 PM GMT – (CAD) Common CPI y/y
- 02:30 PM GMT – (CAD) Median CPI y/y
- 02:30 PM GMT – (CAD) Retail Sales m/m
- 02:30 PM GMT – (CAD) Trimmed CPI y/y
