18 May 2015

Monday 18th May: European Open Briefing

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Global Markets:

  • Asian stock markets: Nikkei gained 0.70 %, Shanghai Composite rose 0.05 %, Hang Seng declined 0.80 %, ASX fell 0.90 %

  • Commodities: Gold at $1123 (-0.10 %), Silver at $17.60 (+0.30 %), WTI Oil at $60.68 (+0.20 %), Brent Oil at $66.95 (-0.05 %)

  • Rates: US 10 year yield at 2.15, UK 10 year yield at 1.875, German 10 year yield at 0.635

News & Data:

  • Japan Core Machinery Orders 2.6 % y/y, Expected: -7.2 %, Previous: 5.9 %

  • Japan Core Machinery Orders 2.9 % m/m, Expected: 1.8 %, Previous: -0.4 %

  • Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales -1.5 %, Previous: 0.5 %

  • China House Prices -6.1 % y/y, Previous: -6.1 %

  • ECB’s Mersch: ECB Satisfied With Effects Of QE, No Plans To End It Early — RTRS

  • RBA Deputy Governor Lowe: May Rate Cut Will Reinforce Encouraging Signs In Spending

  • Lowe: RBA Treading Fine Line Between Consumption, Imbalances

  • Lowe: Some Normalization Of Global Rates Will Occur In Time

  • Lowe: Further Exchange Rate Fall Would Help Economic Transition

  • Lowe: Still Have Scope To Cut Rates If Required

  • Lowe: RBA Does Not Provide Forward Guidance In Month When Monetary Policy Is Changed

  • Australian Treasurer Hockey: US Liftoff Delay Triggering AUD Volatility

  • OIS signal 95% chance that Reserve Bank of New Zealand will lower official cash rate by 25 bps to 3.25% at July meeting

  • Saudi-Led Coalition Resumes Airstrikes In Yemen — Al Arabiya

  • Iran Hopes To Return To Pre-Sanctions Oil Exports Of About 2.5 Million Bpd In 3 Months Once Sanctions Lifted — RTRS

  • Iran Deputy Oil Minister: Geopolitical Tensions in Middle East Boosting Oil Prices, Sees $80/Bbl. By End 2016

CFTC Positioning Data:

  • EUR net short 179K vs. 190K short prior

  • JPY net short 23,593 vs. 31,183 short prior

  • GBP net short 30,769 vs. 24,758 short prior

  • AUD net long 4,487 vs. 626 long prior

  • CAD net short 3,982 vs. 10,080 short prior

  • CHF that long 10,550 vs. 5331 long prior

Upcoming Events:

  • 08:15 BST – Swiss Retail Sales

  • 09:00 BST – Italian Trade Balance

  • 15:00 BST – US NAHB Housing Market Index

The Week Ahead (Key Data/Events):

Tuesday, May 19th

  • 02:30 BST – RBA Monetary Policy Meeting

  • 04:00 BST – New Zealand Inflation Expectations

  • 09:30 BST – UK CPI

  • 10:00 BST – German ZEW Economic Sentiment

  • 10:00 BST – Euro Zone CPI

  • 13:30 BST – US Building Permits

  • 13:30 BST – US Housing Starts

  • 16:45 BST – Bank of Canada Governor Poloz speaks

Wednesday, May 20th

  • 00:50 BST – Japan GDP

  • 09:30 BST – Bank of England Meeting Minutes

  • 19:00 BST – FOMC Meeting Minutes

Thursday, May 21th

  • 02:45 BST – China HSCB Manufacturing PMI

  • 08:30 BST – German Manufacturing & Services PMI

  • 09:00 BST – Euro Zone Manufacturing & Services PMI

  • 09:30 BST – UK Retail Sales

  • 13:30 BST – US Initial Jobless Claims

  • 15:00 BST – US Existing Home Sales

Friday, May 22th

  • 07:00 BST – German GDP

  • 13:30 BST – US CPI

  • 13:30 BST – Canadian CPI

  • 13:30 BST – Canadian Retail Sales