Global Markets:
- Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 0.03%, Shanghai Composite up 0.10%, Hang Seng up 0.45%, ASX down 0.35%
- Commodities : Gold at $1342.45 (-0.15%), Silver at $14.83 (+0.17%), Brent Oil at $62.09 (+0.13%), WTI Oil at $52.77 (0.00%)
- Rates : US 10-year yield at 2.099, UK 10-year yield at 0.846, Germany 10-year yield at -0.254
News & Data:
- (USD) Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 97.9 vs 98.1 expected
- (USD) Retail Sales m/m 0.50% vs 0.70% expected
- (USD) Core Retail Sales m/m 0.50% vs 0.50% expected
- (CNY) Industrial Production y/y 5.00% vs 5.40% expected
- (CNY) Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y 5.60% vs 6.10% expected
- China central bank injects funds, second phase of RRR cut takes effect
- NZIER Consensus Forecasts shows lower growth outlook
CFTC Positioning Data:
- EUR short 87K vs 88K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 1K
- GBP short 45K vs 48K short last week. Shorts decreased by 3K
- JPY short 45K vs 44K short last week. Short increase by 1K
- CHF short 25k vs 36k short last week. Shorts decreased by 11K
- AUD short 63k vs 63k short last week. Unchanged
- NZD short 16K vs 20K short last week. Shorts decreased by 4K
- CAD short 33K vs 42K short last week. Shorts increased by 9K
Markets Update:
Asian stock markets are trading wobbly on Monday following the modest losses on Wall Street Friday amid worries about the impact of the U.S.-China trade war on the tech sector. Investors are also cautious as they look ahead to key central bank meetings, including the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, later this week.
Mainland Chinese stocks continued to see-saw through the day, with the Shanghai Composite now trading up by 0.1%, the Shenzhen composite lower by 0.4%. Over in Japan, the Nikkei is trading flat, while the TOPIX is lower by half a percent, giving up early gains. In economic news, Japan will release May numbers for department store sales and Tokyo condominium sales today.
In Hong Kong, the markets finally caught a break after three sessions of losses owing to the protests. Hang Seng now trades higher by 0.5%, with a day’s high of +1.4%. The Australian market is declining, with mining and oil stocks among the leading decliners. ASX is lower by 0.4%.
The spread between two- and 10-year US Treasury yields shrunk to 23.7 basis points compared to more than 30 earlier this month, as the retail sales report also sent short-dated U.S. Treasury yields higher, flattening the yield curve. In currency markets, the dollar index against a basket of six major currencies climbed to 97.583 on Friday, its highest level in almost two weeks, after the U.S. retail sales data eased fears that the world’s largest economy is slowing sharply.
Oil prices rose on Monday after U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo said Washington will take all actions necessary to guarantee safe navigation in the Middle East, as tensions mounted following attacks on tankers last week.
Upcoming Events:
Monday, June 17, 2019
- 06:00 PM GMT – (EUR) ECB President Draghi Speaks
- 07:30 PM GMT – (CAD) Gov Council Member Schembri Speaks
Tuesday, June 18, 2019
- 02:30 AM GMT – (AUD) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
- 02:30 AM GMT – (AUD) HPI q/q
- 09:00 AM GMT – (EUR) ECB President Draghi Speaks
- 10:00 AM GMT – (EUR) German ZEW Economic Sentiment
- 01:30 PM GMT – (CAD) Manufacturing Sales m/m
- 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Building Permits
- 03:00 PM GMT – (GBP) BOE Gov Carney Speaks
Wednesday, June 19, 2019
- 09:30 AM GMT – (GBP) CPI y/y
- 09:30 AM GMT – (GBP) PPI Input m/m
- 01:30 PM GMT – (CAD) CPI m/m
- 01:30 PM GMT – (CAD) Common CPI y/y
- 01:30 PM GMT – (CAD) Median CPI y/y
- 01:30 PM GMT – (CAD) Trimmed CPI y/y
- 03:00 PM GMT – (EUR) ECB President Draghi Speaks
- 07:00 PM GMT – (USD) FOMC Economic Projections
- 07:00 PM GMT – (USD) FOMC Statement
- 07:00 PM GMT – (USD) Federal Funds Rate
- 07:30 PM GMT – (USD) FOMC Press Conference
- 11:45 PM GMT – (NZD) GDP q/q
Thursday, June 20, 2019
- 02:15 AM GMT – (AUD) RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
- Tentative – (JPY) Monetary Policy Statement
- Tentative – (JPY) BOJ Press Conference
- 09:30 AM GMT – (GBP) Retail Sales m/m
- Tentative – (All) OPEC-JMMC Meetings
- 12:00 PM GMT – (GBP) MPC Official Bank Rate Votes
- 12:00 PM GMT – (GBP) Monetary Policy Summary
- 12:00 PM GMT – (GBP) Official Bank Rate
- 12:00 PM GMT – (GBP) Asset Purchase Facility
- 12:00 PM GMT – (GBP) MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes
- 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
- 09:00 PM GMT – (GBP) BOE Gov Carney Speaks
Friday, June 21, 2019
- 08:15 AM GMT – (EUR) French Flash Services PMI
- 08:15 AM GMT – (EUR) French Flash Manufacturing PMI
- 08:30 AM GMT – (EUR) German Flash Manufacturing PMI
- 08:30 AM GMT – (EUR) German Flash Services PMI
- 09:00 AM GMT – (EUR) Flash Manufacturing PMI
- 09:00 AM GMT – (EUR) Flash Services PMI
- 09:30 AM GMT – (GBP) Public Sector Net Borrowing
- 01:30 PM GMT – (CAD) Core Retail Sales m/m
- 01:30 PM GMT – (CAD) Retail Sales m/m
- 01:30 PM GMT – (GBP) MPC Member Tenreyro Speaks
- 05:00 PM GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Brainard Speaks
- &more…
