Monday 16th April: Asian markets mixed; Syria does not tank markets

Global Markets:

• Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 0.22%, Shanghai Composite down 1.61%, Hang Seng down 1.74%, ASX up 0.19%
• Commodities : Gold at $1349.10 (+0.09%), Silver at $16.64 (-0.11%), WTI Oil at $71.83 (-1.03%), Brent Oil at $66.78 (-0.91%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 2.834, UK 10-year yield at 1.428, Germany 10-year yield at 0.511

News & Data:

• (EUR) Trade Balance 21.0B vs 20.2B expected
• (USD) Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 97.8 vs 100.6 expected
• (USD) JOLTS Job Openings 6.05M vs 6.11M expected
• (USD) Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 2.70% vs 2.80% previous
• Former Japan PM Junichiro Koizumi says embattled leader Shinzo Abe may quit in June as support collapses
• UK House Prices Rise 0.4% In April – Rightmove

CFTC Positioning Data (Week Ending April 10th, 2018)

• EUR long 147K vs 134K long last week. Longs increased by 13K
• GBP long 43K vs 40K long last week. Longs increased by 3K.
• JPY long 3K vs 4K short last week. Longs increased by 7K.
• CHF short 11K vs 10K short last week. Shorts increased by 1K.
• CAD short 32K vs 32K long last week. No change
• AUD short 3k vs 0K flat last week.  Shorts increased by 3K.
• NZD long 23K vs 18K long last week. Longs increased by 5K.

Markets Update:

Asian equities were mixed in today’s trade. The markets did not react as much as expected the US airstrikes in Syria – as it did to concerns of Russian reactions to fresh US sanctions. The fact that Russia did not retaliate to the US airstrikes, or shoot the missiles down, has been viewed as a positive sign by the markets.

Russian President Vladmir Putin said that any further attacks on Syria by the Western powers would bring chaos to world affairs, but with President Trump celebrating success that the intended mission has been accomplished, experts believe that the worst has been averted. A continues US campaign against Assad looks improbable at the moment.

Nikkei is trading in the green, but off highs, as new reports indicate that PM Abe’s public support continues to erode. There have been suggestions in the media that the embattled PM is considering resignation as well. Chinese markets trailing, with both HKMA’s recent market intervention, and GDP report expected tomorrow pulling down the markets.

The dollar was firmer against the yen today, and the euro was steady against the dollar. The dollar eased slightly in today’s trade though.

Bonds have eased slightly, and commodities have mostly gain, with the dollar weakness in the background. Oil is off last week’s highs, as the Syrian situation continues to settle down.

Upcoming Events:

Monday, April 16^th2018

• 07:15 AM GMT – (CHF) PPI m/m
• 12:30 PM GMT – (USD) Core Retail Sales m/m
• 12:30 PM GMT – (USD) Retail Sales m/m
• 12:30 PM GMT – (USD) Empire State Manufacturing Index
• 05:15 PM GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Bostic Speaks

Tuesday, April 17^th 2018

• 01:30 AM GMT – (AUD) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
• 02:00 AM GMT – (CNY) GDP q/y
• 02:00 AM GMT – (CNY) Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y
• 02:00 AM GMT – (CNY) Industrial Production y/y
• 02:00 AM GMT – (CNY) NBS Press Conference
• 08:30 AM GMT – (GBP) Average Earnings Index 3m/y
• 08:30 AM GMT – (GBP) Claimant Count Change
• 08:30 AM GMT – (GBP) Unemployment Rate
• 09:00 AM GMT – (EUR) German ZEW Economic Sentiment
• 12:30 PM GMT – (CAD) Foreign Securities Purchases
• 12:30 PM GMT – (CAD) Manufacturing Sales m/m
• 12:30 PM GMT – (USD) Building Permits
• 12:30 PM GMT – (USD) Housing Starts
• 01:15 PM GMT – (USD) Capacity Utilization Rate
• 01:15 PM GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Williams Speaks
• 01:15 PM GMT – (USD) Industrial Production m/m
• 02:00 PM GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
• Tentative – (NZD) GDT Price Index
• 09:40 PM GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Bostic Speaks

Wednesday, April 18^th 2018

• 08:30 AM GMT – (GBP) CPI y/y
• 08:30 AM GMT – (GBP) PPI Input m/m
• 08:30 AM GMT – (GBP) RPI y/y
• 09:00 AM GMT – (EUR) Final CPI y/y
• 02:00 PM GMT – (CAD) BOC Monetary Policy Report
• 02:00 PM GMT – (CAD) BOC Rate Statement
• 02:00 PM GMT – (CAD) Overnight Rate
• 02:30 PM GMT – (USD) Crude Oil Inventories
• 03:15 PM GMT – (CAD) BOC Press Conference
• 07:15 PM GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
• 08:15 PM GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
• 10:45 PM GMT – (NZD) CPI q/q

Thursday, April 19^th 2018

• 01:30 AM GMT – (AUD) Employment Change
• 01:30 AM GMT – (AUD) Unemployment Rate
• 08:30 AM GMT – (GBP) Retail Sales m/m
• 12:00 PM GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Brainard Speaks
• 12:30 PM GMT – (USD) Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
• 12:30 PM GMT – (USD) Unemployment Claims
• 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
• 04:30 PM GMT – (GBP) MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks
• 10:45 PM GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Mester Speaks

Friday, April 20^th 2018

• 09:30 AM GMT – (GBP) MPC Member Saunders Speaks
• 11:30 AM GMT – (EUR) German Buba President Weidmann Speaks
• 12:30 PM GMT – (CAD) CPI m/m
• 12:30 PM GMT – (CAD) Core Retail Sales m/m
• 12:30 PM GMT – (CAD) Common CPI y/y
• 12:30 PM GMT – (CAD) Median CPI y/y
• 12:30 PM GMT – (CAD) Retail Sales m/m
• 12:30 PM GMT – (CAD) Trimmed CPI y/y
• 03:15 PM GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Williams Speaks
• &more…