Global Markets:
- Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 0.20%, Shanghai Composite up 0.37%, Hang Seng up 0.08%, ASX down 0.52%
- Commodities: Gold at $1414.35 (+0.15%), Silver at $15.23 (-0.03%), Brent Oil at $66.56 (-0.24%), WTI Oil at $59.95 (-0.43%)
- Rates : US 10-year yield at 2.124, UK 10-year yield at 0.831, Germany 10-year yield at -0.250
News & Data:
- (GBP) Rightmove HPI m/m -0.20% vs 0.30% previous
- (NZD) Visitor Arrivals m/m -0.20% vs -3.20% previous
- (GBP) CB Leading Index m/m -0.40% vs -0.30% previous
- (USD) Core PPI m/m 0.30% vs 0.20% expected
- (USD) PPI m/m 0.10% vs 0.10% expected
- (EUR) Industrial Production m/m 0.90% vs 0.20% expected
- (CNY) M2 Money Supply y/y 8.50% vs 8.60% expected
- (CNY) New Loans 1660B vs 1650B expected
- (CNY) USD-Denominated Trade Balance 51.0B vs 45.2B expected
- (CNY) Trade Balance 345B vs 276B expected
- (EUR) German WPI m/m -0.50% vs 0.20% expected
- (JPY) Revised Industrial Production m/m 2.00% vs 2.30% expected
- (CNY) GDP q/y 6.20% vs 6.20% expected
- (CNY) Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y 5.80% vs 5.60% expected
- (CNY) Industrial Production y/y 6.30% vs 5.20% expected
- (CNY) Retail Sales y/y 9.80% vs 8.50% expected
- (CNY) Unemployment Rate 5.10% vs 5.00% previous
CFTC Positioning Data:
- EUR short 36K vs 31K short last week. Shorts increased by 5K
- GBP short 73K vs 64K short last week. Shorts increased by 9K
- JPY short 4K vs 1K short last week. Short increased by 3K
- CHF short 10k vs 11k short last week. Shorts trimmed by 1K
- AUD short 54k vs 58k short last week. Shorts trimmed by 4K
- NZD short 22K vs 24K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 2K
- CAD long 9K vs 6K long last week. Longs increased by 3K
Markets Update:
Asian shares advanced on Monday as encouraging Chinese data suggested the world’s second-biggest economy may be starting to stabilise thanks to ramped-up stimulus from Beijing. Chinese stocks initially fell on Monday morning immediately after the release of GDP data but rebounded after the other data came in better-than-expected. The promising monthly activity data suggested a flurry of stimulus measures from China have been able to prop-up domestic activity and offset some of the damage from a protracted trade war with the United States. The news came after the resumption of Sino-U.S. trade talks following a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping last month in Japan.
The Shanghai Composite gained 0.3%, rebounding from its worst week in two months after official data on factory output and retail sales showed that growth beat estimates for June, while investment in the first half of the year accelerated. Australian shares slipped 0.5% while Hang Seng is mostly flat at 0.08%. Australia’s ASX Ltd. is testing its systems for the trading of negative interest rate products, underscoring how markets are preparing for the potential of quantitative easing. Japan’s Nikkei closed at 21,685.9 points on Friday and is yet to react to the Chinese data as Japan is shut for a public holiday.
Expectations that the Fed will keep rates supportive have sent bonds rallying with ten-year U.S. Treasuries above the 2% mark. The dollar ticked up from near the lowest since early June at 108.04 while the single currency was slightly lower at $1.1267 after three successive sessions of gains.
In commodities, U.S. crude fell 31 cents to $59.95 a barrel while Brent crude was off 22 cents at $66.56 after China posted its slowest quarterly economic growth in at least 27 years, reinforcing concerns about demand in the world’s largest crude oil importer. Gold prices are up 0.15% on Monday in Asia after data showed China’s second-quarter growth data slowed to a 27-year low but matched expectations.
Upcoming Events:
Monday, July 15, 2019
- 2:30 AM GMT – (CHF) PPI m/m
- 8:30 AM GMT – (USD) Empire State Manufacturing Index
- 8:50 AM GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Williams Speaks
- 6:45 PM GMT – (NZD) CPI q/q
- 9:30 PM GMT – (AUD) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Tuesday, July 16, 2019
- 4:00 AM GMT – (EUR) Italian Trade Balance
- 4:30 AM GMT – (GBP) Average Earnings Index 3m/y
- 4:30 AM GMT – (GBP) Claimant Count Change
- 4:30 AM GMT – (GBP) Unemployment Rate
- 5:00 AM GMT – (EUR) German ZEW Economic Sentiment
- 5:00 AM GMT – (EUR) Trade Balance
- 5:00 AM GMT – (EUR) ZEW Economic Sentiment
- 8:15 AM GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
- 8:30 AM GMT – (CAD) Foreign Securities Purchases
- 8:30 AM GMT – (USD) Core Retail Sales m/m
- 8:30 AM GMT – (USD) Retail Sales m/m
- 8:30 AM GMT – (USD) Import Prices m/m
- 9:15 AM GMT – (USD) Capacity Utilization Rate
- 9:15 AM GMT – (USD) Industrial Production m/m
- 10:00 AM GMT – (USD) Business Inventories m/m
- 10:00 AM GMT – (USD) NAHB Housing Market Index
- Tentative – (NZD) GDT Price Index
- 1:00 PM GMT – (USD) Fed Chair Powell Speaks
- 3:30 PM GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Evans Speaks
- 4:00 PM GMT – (USD) TIC Long-Term Purchases
- 8:30 PM GMT – (AUD) MI Leading Index m/m
Wednesday, July 17, 2019
- 4:30 AM GMT – (GBP) CPI y/y
- 4:30 AM GMT – (GBP) PPI Input m/m
- 4:30 AM GMT – (GBP) Core CPI y/y
- 4:30 AM GMT – (GBP) HPI y/y
- 4:30 AM GMT – (GBP) PPI Output m/m
- 4:30 AM GMT – (GBP) RPI y/y
- 5:00 AM GMT – (EUR) Final CPI y/y
- 5:00 AM GMT – (EUR) Final Core CPI y/y
- Tentative – (EUR) German 30-y Bond Auction
- 8:30 AM GMT – (CAD) CPI m/m
- 8:30 AM GMT – (CAD) Common CPI y/y
- 8:30 AM GMT – (CAD) Manufacturing Sales m/m
- 8:30 AM GMT – (CAD) Median CPI y/y
- 8:30 AM GMT – (CAD) Trimmed CPI y/y
- 8:30 AM GMT – (CAD) Core CPI m/m
- 8:30 AM GMT – (USD) Building Permits
- 8:30 AM GMT – (USD) Housing Starts
- 10:30 AM GMT – (USD) Crude Oil Inventories
- 2:00 PM GMT – (USD) Beige Book
- 7:50 PM GMT – (JPY) Trade Balance
- 9:30 PM GMT – (AUD) Employment Change
- 9:30 PM GMT – (AUD) Unemployment Rate
- 9:30 PM GMT – (AUD) NAB Quarterly Business Confidence
Thursday, July 18, 2019
- 2:00 AM GMT – (CHF) Trade Balance
- 4:30 AM GMT – (GBP) Retail Sales m/m
- 4:30 AM GMT – (GBP) BOE Credit Conditions Survey
- Tentative – (EUR) Spanish 10-y Bond Auction
- 8:30 AM GMT – (CAD) ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
- 8:30 AM GMT – (USD) Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
- 8:30 AM GMT – (USD) Unemployment Claims
- 10:00 AM GMT – (USD) CB Leading Index m/m
- 10:30 AM GMT – (USD) Natural Gas Storage
- 2:15 PM GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Williams Speaks
- 7:30 PM GMT – (JPY) National Core CPI y/y
- 11:00 PM GMT – (NZD) Credit Card Spending y/y
Friday, July 19, 2019
- 12:30 AM GMT – (JPY) All Industries Activity m/m
- 2:00 AM GMT – (EUR) German PPI m/m
- 4:00 AM GMT – (EUR) Current Account
- 4:30 AM GMT – (GBP) Public Sector Net Borrowing
- 8:30 AM GMT – (CAD) Core Retail Sales m/m
- 8:30 AM GMT – (CAD) Retail Sales m/m
- 10:00 AM GMT – (USD) Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
- 10:00 AM GMT – (USD) Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations
- 11:05 AM GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
- 4:30 PM GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks
Saturday, July 20, 2019
- 4:30 AM GMT – (GBP) MPC Member Vlieghe Speaks
- 5:00 AM GMT – (EUR) Industrial Production m/m
- All Day – (EUR) ECOFIN Meetings
- 8:30 AM GMT – (USD) PPI m/m
- 8:30 AM GMT – (USD) Core PPI m/m
- 9:30 AM GMT – (GBP) CB Leading Index m/m
Sunday, July 21, 2019
- 10:00 PM GMT – (CNY) Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y
- 10:00 PM GMT – (CNY) Industrial Production y/y
- 10:00 PM GMT – (CNY) Retail Sales y/y
- 10:00 PM GMT – (CNY) Unemployment Rate
- &more…
