Monday 14th November: European Open Briefing

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Global Markets:

  • Asian stock markets: Nikkei up 1.80 %, Shanghai Composite rose 0.60 %; Hang Seng fell 1.30 %, ASX 200 declined 0.50 %
  • Commodities: Gold at $1213 (-0.90 %), Silver at $17.15 (-1.30 %), WTI Oil at $43.30 (-0.25 %), Brent Oil at $44.75 (-0.05 %)
  • Rates: US 10 year yield at 2.22, UK 10 year yield at 1.37, German 10 year yield at 0.32

News & Data:

  • China Retail Sales (YoY) Oct: 10.0% (est. 10.70%, prev. 10.70%)
  • China Industrial Production (YoY) Oct: 6.1% (est. 6.20%, prev. 6.10%)
  • China Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) Oct: 8.3% (est. 8.20%, prev. 8.20%)
  • Japan GDP (QoQ) Q3: 0.5% (est. 0.2%, prev. 0.30%)
  • Japan GDP (YoY) Q3: 2.2% (est. 0.9%, prev. 1.3%)
  • Japan Capacity Utilization -2.0% (MoM) Sep: (prev. 2.60%)
  • Japan Industrial Production (MoM) Sep: 0.6% (prev. 0.0%)
  • PBOC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.8291 (prev. close 6.8160, prev fix 6.8115)
  • BoJ's Kuroda: Will change policy as needed in order to hit 2% inflation target; expects inflation to move towards 2% steadily
  • New Zealand quake damage bill at least 'a couple of billion dollars': PM Key

Markets Update:

The US Dollar extended gains against all other major currencies overnight. EUR/USD opened at 1.0840 in Asia and declined to 1.0770, while Cable started the trading day at 1.2570 and fell to a low of 1.2510. The largest move in the major pairs was seen in USD/JPY, which rallied from 106.80 to 107.60. The pair remains very well bid, and with 107.50 now cleared the next bull target is 110.
AUD/UD opened around 0.7560 in Asia and fell to a low of 0.7525. NZD/USD declined from 0.7140 at the open to 0.7075, and was under additional pressure because of the earthquake in New Zealand yesterday. The country's prime minister spoke earlier, and said that the damage bill will be at least several billion dollars.

Gold extended losses as well, and reached a low of $1212 in Asia. There is now little support until $1198/1200, and we will likely see a test of that area in the near-term.

Upcoming Events:

  • 08:15 GMT – Swiss PPI
  • 10:00 GMT – Euro Zone Industrial Production
  • 15:00 GMT – ECB President Draghi speaks
  • 18:20 GMT – FOMC Member Kaplan speaks
  • 21:45 GMT – New Zealand Retail Sales
  • 22:00 GMT – FOMC Member Lacker speaks

The Week Ahead:

Tuesday, November 15th

  • 00:30 GMT – RBA Meeting Minutes
  • 07:00 GMT – German GDP
  • 07:45 GMT – French CPI
  • 08:00 GMT – RBA Governor Lowe speaks
  • 09:00 GMT – Italian GDP
  • 09:30 GMT – UK CPI
  • 10:00 GMT – UK Inflation Report Hearings
  • 10:00 GMT – Euro Zone GDP
  • 10:00 GMT – Euro Zone Trade Balance
  • 10:00 GMT – Euro Zone ZEW Economic Sentiment
  • 10:00 GMT – German ZEW Economic Sentiment
  • 13:30 GMT – US Retail Sales
  • 13:30 GMT – US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
  • 18:30 GMT – FOMC Member Fischer speaks

Wednesday, November 16th

  • 00:30 GMT – Australia Wage Price Index
  • 08:00 GMT – FOMC Member Bullard speaks
  • 09:30 GMT – UK Unemployment Rate
  • 09:30 GMT – UK Claimant Count Change
  • 09:30 GMT – UK Average Earnings
  • 10:00 GMT – Swiss ZEW Expectations
  • 13:30 GMT – US PPI
  • 14:15 GMT – US Industrial Production
  • 14:15 GMT – US Manufacturing Production
  • 15:30 GMT – US Crude Oil Inventories
  • 22:30 GMT – FOMC Member Harker speaks

Thursday, November 17th

  • 00:30 GMT – Australia Unemployment Rate
  • 00:30 GMT – Australia Employment Change
  • 09:30 GMT – UK Retail Sales
  • 10:00 GMT – Euro Zone CPI
  • 12:30 GMT – ECB Meeting Minutes
  • 13:30 GMT – US Building Permits
  • 13:30 GMT – US CPI
  • 13:30 GMT – US Housing Starts
  • 13:30 GMT – US Initial Jobless Claims
  • 13:30 GMT – US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
  • 13:50 GMT – FOMC Member Dudley speaks
  • 15:00 GMT – Fed Chair Yellen testifies
  • 17:30 GMT – FOMC Member Brainard speaks

Friday, November 18th

  • 07:00 GMT – German PPI
  • 08:00 GMT – ECB President Draghi speaks
  • 09:00 GMT – Euro Zone Current Account
  • 10:30 GMT – FOMC Member Bullard speaks
  • 13:30 GMT – Canadian CPI
  • 14:30 GMT – FOMC Member George speaks
  • 18:30 GMT – FOMC Member Kaplan speaks

 

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