Global Markets:
- Asian stock markets: Nikkei up 1.35 %, Shanghai Composite rose 2.60 %, Hang Seng rallied 1.25 %, ASX 200 gained 0.30 %
- Commodities: Gold at $1255 (-0.30 %), Silver at $15.60 (+0.30 %), WTI Oil at $38.40 (-0.25 %), Brent Oil at $40.45 (+0.10 %)
- Rates: US 10 year yield at 1.98, UK 10 year yield at 1.58, German 10 year yield at 0.27
News & Data:
- Japan Machine Orders (MoM) Jan: 15.0% (est. 1.9%, prev. 3.2%)
- Japan Machine Orders (YoY) Jan: 8.4% (est.-3.8%, prev. -3.6%)
- NZ February Services PMI 56.9 (Prev. 55.4)
- NZIER Forecasts: Stronger growth but weaker inflation outlook
- Asian stocks lifted by Wall Street gains – RTRS
- Dollar steadies before BOJ, Fed meetings; Aussie buoyant – RTRS
- Offshore Yuan Drops as Zhou Says No Need for Major Economy Steps – BBG
- on Rises to Nine-Week High as Emerging-Market Rally Continues – BBG
CFTC Positioning Data:
- EUR short 72K vs 69K short prior week
- GBP short 49K vs. 39K short prior week
- JPY long 64K vs. 60K long prior week
- CAD short 26K vs. 30K short prior week
- CHF short 0.1K vs. 1.5K short prior week
- AUD long 29K vs. 17K long prior week
- NZD short 2K vs 4K short prior week
Markets Update:
The US Dollar weakened overnight, while the Australian Dollar extended gains. AUD/USD rallied to 0.7593 and is approaching another significant resistance level at 0.76. A recovery in commodity prices and neutral RBA have boosted the currency and unless there is a major change in risk sentiment or USD-positive surprise from the Fed on Wednesday, further gains seem likely.
NZD/USD is basically unchanged from Friday's close and trading around 0.6750. Support is seen at 0.6710 and 0.6675, while resistance lies at 0.6775 and 0.6820. USD/CAD remains under pressure amid rising oil prices and the pair consolidated in a 1.3211-45 range overnight.
USD/JPY had a mixed start into the new trading week. It started around 113.90, fell to 113.70, rallied back to 114 and eventually declined back towards 113.70. Further consolidation seems likely ahead of the FOMC and the key levels to watch are 114.43 and 113.20.
Upcoming Events:
- 09:00 GMT – Euro Zone Industrial Production
- 19:00 GMT – RBNZ Governor Wheeler speaks
The Week Ahead:
Tuesday, March 15th
- Tentative – Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision
- 00:30 GMT – RBA Meeting Minutes
- 04:30 GMT – Japanese Industrial Production
- 06:30 GMT – Bank of Japan Press Conference
- 07:45 GMT – French CPI
- 08:30 GMT – Swedish CPI
- 09:00 GMT – Italian CPI
- 12:30 GMT – US PPI
- 12:30 GMT – US Retail Sales
- 14:00 GMT – US Business Inventories
- 14:00 GMT – US NAHB Housing Market Index
- 21:45 GMT – New Zealand Current Account
Wednesday, March 16th
- 09:30 GMT – UK Unemployment Rate
- 09:30 GMT – UK Claimant Count Change
- 12:30 GMT – US Building Permits
- 12:30 GMT – US Housing Starts
- 12:30 GMT – US CPI
- 13:15 GMT – US Industrial Production
- 13:15 GMT – US Manufacturing Production
- 14:30 GMT – US Crude Oil Inventories
- 18:00 GMT – Federal Reserve Rate Decision
- 18:00 GMT – FOMC Statement
- 18:30 GMT – Fed Chair Yellen speaks
- 21:45 GMT – New Zealand GDP
Thursday, March 17th
- 00:30 GMT – Australia Employment Change
- 00:30 GMT – Australia Unemployment Rate
- 08:15 GMT – Swiss PPI
- 08:30 GMT – SNB Rate Decision
- 09:00 GMT – Norges Bank Rate Decision
- 10:00 GMT – Euro Zone CPI
- 12:00 GMT – Bank of England Rate Decision
- 12:00 GMT – BoE MPC Meeting Minutes
- 12:30 GMT – US Initial Jobless Claims
- 12:30 GMT – US Phily Fed Manufacturing Index
- 14:00 GMT – US JOLTs Job Openings
- 23:50 GMT – BoJ Meeting Minutes
Friday, March 18th
- 07:00 GMT – German PPI
- 12:30 GMT – Canadian CPI
- 12:30 GMT – Canadian Retail Sales
- 14:00 GMT – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment
