Global Markets:
- Asian stock markets: Nikkei up 0.10 %, Shanghai Composite gained 1.50 %, Hang Seng rose 0.75 %, ASX is 0.05 % higher
- Commodities: Gold at $1204 (-0.05 %), Silver at $16.38 (-0.05 %), WTI Oil at $51.77 (+0.25 %), Brent Oil at $59.00 (+0.05 %)
- Rates: US 10 year yield at 1.94, UK 10 year yield at 1.589, German 10 year yield at 0.16
News & Data:
- China Trade Balance $3.08bln, Expected: $45.35bln, Previous: $60.60bln
- China Exports -15.0 %, Expected: 12.0 %, Previous: 48.3 %
- China Imports -12.7 %, Expected: -11.7 %, Previous: 20.5 %
- Japan Core Machinery Orders -0.4 % m/m, Expected: -2.8 %, Previous: -1.7 %
- Japan Core Machinery Orders 5.9 % y/y, Expected: 3.7 %, Previous: 1.9 %
- Japan CGPI 0.3 % m/m, Expected: -0.1 %, Previous: 0.0 %
- Japan CGPI 0.7 % y/y, Expected: 0.4 %, Previous: 0.5 %
- New Zealand PM Key: RBNZ Property Tools Better Than Rate Rises — Radio NZ
- Riksbank Governor Ingves: Will Be Years Before “Normal” Interest Rates — Finanzen
- China Imports From Australia Decline for Record Seventh Month
CFTC Positioning Data:
- EUR shorts 215k vs 227k previously
- GBP shorts 34k vs 36k previously
- JPY shorts 24k vs 24k previously
- AUD shorts 40k vs 24k previously
- CAD shorts 30k vs 29k previously
- CHF longs 120 vs 706 previously
Markets Update:
The US Dollar gained across the board in the Asian session, as Chinese trade data pushed the Aussie and Kiwi Dollar almost 100 pips lower. Chinese imports declined 12.7 %, with imports from Australia declining for the 7th month now. AUD/USD fell from 0.7665 to a fresh multi-day low at 0.7585, while NZD/USD dropped from 0.7535 ahead of the data release to 0.7445. There was also position unwinding in last week’s popular carry trades – EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD, GBP/NZD – and it seems we could see a decent short squeeze in those pairs.
Upcoming Events:
- 07:45 BST – French Current Account
- 09:00 BST – Italian Industrial Production (0.5 % m/m, -1.3 % y/y)
- 19:00 BST – US Federal Budget Balance (-$43bln)
The Week Ahead (Key Data Releases/Events)
Tuesday, April 14th 2015
02:30 BST – Australian NAB Business Confidence
07:00 BST – Swedish Unemployment Rate
07:00 BST – German WPI (0.2 % m/m)
08:00 BST – Spanish CPI (0.6 % m/m, -0.7 y/y)
08:00 BST – Spanish HICP (2.1 % m/m, -0.7 y/y)
08:30 BST – Swedish CPI (0.2 % m/m, 0.3 % y/y)
09:00 BST – Italian CPI (0.1 % m/m, -0.1 % y/y)
09:30 BST – UK CPI (0.2 % m/m, 0.0 % y/y)
09:30 BST – UK Core CPI (1.2 % y/y)
10:00 BST – Euro Zone Industrial Production (0.3 % m/m, 0.7 % y/y)
13:00 BST – FOMC Member Kocherlakota speaks
13:30 BST – US Core PPI (0.1 % m/m, 0.9 % y/y)
13:30 BST – US PPI (0.2 % m/m, -0.7 % y/y)
13:30 BST – US Retail Sales (1.0 % m/m)
15:00 BST – US Business Inventories (0.2 % m/m)
Wednesday, April 15th 2015
03:00 BST – Chinese GDP (1.4 % q/q, 7.0 % y/y)
03:00 BST – Chinese Industrial Production (6.9 % y/y)
03:00 BST – Chinese Retail Sales (10.9 % y/y)
07:00 BST – German CPI (0.5 % m/m, 0.3 % y/y)
07:00 BST – German HICP (0.5 % m/m, 0.1 % y/y)
07:15 BST – Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda speaks
07:45 BST – French CPI (0.7 % m/m)
07:45 BST – French HICP (0.7 % m/m, 0.0 % y/y)
10:00 BST – Euro Zone Trade Balance
12:45 BST – ECB Interest Rate Decision (0.05 %)
13:30 BST – US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (7.30)
13:30 BST – Canadian Manufacturing Sales (-0.2 % m/m)
13:30 BST – ECB Press Conference
14:00 BST – FOMC Member Bullard speaks
14:15 BST – US Industrial Production (-0.3 % m/m)
14:15 BST – US Manufacturing Production (0.1 % m/m)
15:00 BST – US NAHB Housing Market Index (55.0)
15:00 BST – Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision (0.75 %)
15:00 BST – Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report
16:15 BST – Bank of Canada Governor Poloz speaks
Thursday, April 16th 2015
02:30 BST – Australian Employment Change (15k)
02:30 BST – Australian Unemployment Rate (6.3 %)
08:15 BST – Swiss PPI (0.1 % m/m)
09:00 BST – Italian Trade Balance (€1.21bln)
13:30 BST – US Building Permits (1.08mln)
13:30 BST – US Housing Starts (1.04mln)
13:30 BST – US Initial Jobless Claims
15:00 BST – US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (6.3)
Friday, April 17th 2015
08:15 BST – Swiss Retail Sales
09:00 BST – Euro Zone Current Account
09:30 BST – UK Claimant Count Change (-28k)
09:30 BST – UK Unemployment Rate (5.6 %)
09:30 BST – UK Average Earnings (1.8 %)
10:00 BST – Euro Zone CPI (1.1 % m/m, -0.1 % y/y)
10:00 BST – Euro Zone Core CPI
13:30 BST – US CPI (0.2 % m/m, 0.1 % y/y)
13:30 BST – US Core CPI (0.2 % m/m, 1.7 % y/y)
13:30 BST – Canadian CPI (1.0 % m/m, 1.0 % y/y)
13:30 BST – Canadian Core CPI (2.0 % y/y)
13:30 BST – Canadian Retail Sales (1.0 % m/m)
15:00 BST – US Michigan Consumer Expectations (87)
15:00 BST – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (94)