Friday 23rd October: European Open Briefing

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Global Markets:

  • Asian stock markets: Nikkei up 2.60 %, Shanghai Composite gained 0.05 %, Hang Seng rallied 1.45 %, ASX 200 rose 1.90 %
  • Commodities: Gold at $1169 (+0.25 %), Silver at $15.88 (+0.30 %), WTI Oil at $45.56 (+0.40 %), Brent Oil at $48.40 (+0.30 %)
  • Rates: US 10 year yield at 2.04, UK 10 year yield at 1.80, German 10 year yield

News & Data:

  • Japan Nikkei Manufacturing PMI (Oct, P): 52.5 (exp 50.5 prev 51.0)
  • China Conference Board Leading Index (Sep): 339.5 (prev 334.4)
  • PBoC Fixes Yuan Reference Rate At 6.3595 (prev 6.3497)
  • BoJ: Likely to Cut Current FY Growth Forecast To 1.0% (prev 1.7%)
  • BoJ: Likely to Cut Current FY CPI Forecast Below 0.5% (prev 0.7%)
  • Japanese FinMin Aso: Would Be Hard For Inflation To Reach 2% Even If BoJ Eased Now – BBG

ECB Meeting:

  • ECB: Leaves Main Refi Rate Unchanged At 0.05%, Alongside Deposit Facility Rate At -0.20%
  • ECB's Draghi says QE to last until Sept. 2016 or beyond if needed
  • Draghi: The degree of monetary policy accommodation will need to be re-examined at our December monetary policy meeting
  • Draghi: Sees Downside Risks To Growth, Inflation Outlook
  • Draghi: If Conditions Worsen, QE Program Will Have To Be Adjusted
  • Draghi: Can Adjust QE Size, Composition, Duration
  • Draghi: Annual HICP Seen Very Low In Near Term

Markets Update:

The Aussie and New Zealand Dollar rallied overnight, supported by a boost in risk appetite and gains of major Asian stock indices. AUD/USD stood around 0.7205 at the Sydney open and reached a high of 0.7255 earlier. NZD/USD started around 0.6780 and traded as high as 0.6846 in Asia. The pair had a very decent bounce off the 0.67 support level and the strong momentum suggests it will test 0.69 again soon. Above that level, there is no significant tech resistance until 0.70.

Price action in the other major pairs was calm. USD/JPY rallied to 120.98 in Tokyo, but failed to sustain momentum and fell back to 120.62. Key resistance is now seen at 121.25, while intraday support lies at 120.35 and 119.65. EUR/USD, which was the worst performing currency yesterday, consolidated in a 1.1070-1.1120 range, but is currently almost unchanged from the NY closing level. Next support is seen at 1.1008 (mid-August low). Meanwhile, GBP/USD bounced off 1.5375 support again and reached a high of 1.5410.

Upcoming Events:

  • 02:45 BST – Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI
  • 08:00 BST – French Services PMI
  • 08:00 BST – French Manufacturing PMI
  • 08:30 BST – German Services PMI
  • 08:30 BST – German Manufacturing PMI
  • 09:00 BST – Euro Zone Services PMI
  • 09:00 BST – Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI
  • 13:30 BST – Canadian CPI
  • 14:45 BST – US Manufacturing PMI

 

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