Global Markets:
- Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 1.15%, Shanghai Composite up 1.09%, Hang Seng up 0.85%, ASX up 0.54%
- Commodities: Gold at $1492.05 (+0.23%), Silver at $17.61 (+0.36%), Brent Oil at $59.78 (-1.21%), WTI Oil at $54.08 (-1.13%)
- Rates : US 10-year yield at 1.734, UK 10-year yield at 0.706, Germany 10-year yield at -0.476
News & Data:
- (EUR) German WPI m/m -0.40% vs -0.20% expected
- (CNY) Trade Balance 275B vs 254B expected
- (CNY) USD-Denominated Trade Balance 39.7B vs 35.1B expected
- (USD) Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 2.50% vs 2.80% previous
- (USD) Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 96 vs 92 expected
- (USD) Import Prices m/m 0.20% vs -0.10% expected
- (CAD) Unemployment Rate 5.50% vs 5.70% expected
- (CAD) Employment Change 53.7K vs 11.2K expected
- (EUR) German Final CPI m/m 0.00% vs 0.00% expected
- China’s exports suffer biggest drop since February, as US trade war continues to hammer economy
- Britain and EU say work remains to be done to reach Brexit deal
Markets Update:
Asian markets gained in early trading Monday as investors were heartened by Friday’s announcement of a partial trade deal between the U.S. and China. President Donald Trump in Friday announced a deal that included intellectual-property protections and the Chinese purchase of U.S. agricultural products. There were also reports that tariff hikes against $250 billion of Chinese goods, set to kick in this week, would be put off.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 0.85%, while the Shanghai Composite gained 1.09%, despite data that China’s exports fell in September, in yuan terms, reversing an August gain. Australia stocks were higher after the close on Monday, as gains in the Energy, IT and Resources sectors led shares higher. At the close in Sydney, the S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.54%. Japan’s Nikkei was closed for a holiday.
The progress on trade was still enough to slug safe-haven bonds with yields on U.S. 10-year Treasury notes climbing 23 basis points last week to stand at 1.734%. The yield curve also steepened as short-term rates were held down by news the Fed would start buying about $60 billion per month in Treasury bills to ensure “ample reserves” in the banking system.
The dollar fared less well elsewhere, partly due to a jump in sterling, and was last at 98.435 against a basket of currencies (DXY) after losing 0.5% last week. Oil prices pared gains made on Friday when reports surfaced that an Iranian state-owned oil tanker had been attacked in the Red Sea. Investors were also anxiously watching Turkey’s incursion into Syria as the White House threatened to impose heavy sanctions on Ankara. Brent crude futures eased 26 cents at $59.78, while U.S. WTI lost 25 cents to $54.08 a barrel. Gold prices inched up on Monday in Asia but were still below the $1,500 mark after the U.S. and China reached a “phase one” trade deal late last week, which saw the U.S. paused tariffs slated to hit imports of Chinese goods this week.
Upcoming Events:
Monday, October 14, 2019
- All Day – (JPY) Bank Holiday
- 2:55 am GMT – (CNY) USD-Denominated Trade Balance
- 2:58 am GMT – (CNY) Trade Balance
- 6:00 am GMT – (EUR) German WPI m/m
- 9:00 am GMT – (EUR) Industrial Production m/m
- All Day – (CAD) Bank Holiday
- All Day – (USD) Bank Holiday
- 12:10 pm GMT – (GBP) MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks
- 9:45 pm GMT – (NZD) Visitor Arrivals m/m
Tuesday, October 15, 2019
- 12:30 am GMT – (AUD) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
- 12:30 am GMT – (JPY) BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
- 1:30 am GMT – (CNY) CPI y/y
- 1:30 am GMT – (CNY) PPI y/y
- 4:30 am GMT – (JPY) Revised Industrial Production m/m
- 4:30 am GMT – (JPY) Tertiary Industry Activity m/m
- 6:30 am GMT – (CHF) PPI m/m
- 6:45 am GMT – (EUR) French Final CPI m/m
- 15th-17th GMT – (CNY) Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y
- 8:30 am GMT – (GBP) BOE Gov Carney Speaks
- 8:30 am GMT – (GBP) Average Earnings Index 3m/y
- 8:30 am GMT – (GBP) Claimant Count Change
- 8:30 am GMT – (GBP) Unemployment Rate
- 9:00 am GMT – (EUR) German ZEW Economic Sentiment
- 9:00 am GMT – (EUR) ZEW Economic Sentiment
- 15th-16th GMT – (CNY) New Loans
- 15th-16th GMT – (CNY) M2 Money Supply y/y
- Tentative – (GBP) 10-y Bond Auction
- 12:30 pm GMT – (GBP) MPC Member Vlieghe Speaks
- 12:30 pm GMT – (USD) Empire State Manufacturing Index
- Tentative – (NZD) GDT Price Index
- 4:45 pm GMT – (USD) FOMC Member George Speaks
- 15th-18th GMT – (USD) Federal Budget Balance
- 7:25 pm GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
- 9:45 pm GMT – (NZD) CPI q/q
- 11:30 pm GMT – (AUD) MI Leading Index m/m
Wednesday, October 16, 2019
- 8:30 am GMT – (GBP) CPI y/y
- 8:30 am GMT – (GBP) PPI Input m/m
- 8:30 am GMT – (GBP) Core CPI y/y
- 8:30 am GMT – (GBP) HPI y/y
- 8:30 am GMT – (GBP) PPI Output m/m
- 8:30 am GMT – (GBP) RPI y/y
- 9:00 am GMT – (EUR) Final CPI y/y
- 9:00 am GMT – (EUR) Final Core CPI y/y
- 9:00 am GMT – (EUR) Trade Balance
- Tentative – (EUR) German 30-y Bond Auction
- 12:30 pm GMT – (CAD) CPI m/m
- 12:30 pm GMT – (CAD) Common CPI y/y
- 12:30 pm GMT – (CAD) Median CPI y/y
- 12:30 pm GMT – (CAD) Trimmed CPI y/y
- 12:30 pm GMT – (CAD) Core CPI m/m
- 12:30 pm GMT – (CAD) Foreign Securities Purchases
- 12:30 pm GMT – (USD) Core Retail Sales m/m
- 12:30 pm GMT – (USD) Retail Sales m/m
- 1:00 pm GMT – (GBP) BOE Gov Carney Speaks
- 1:00 pm GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Evans Speaks
- 2:00 pm GMT – (USD) Business Inventories m/m
- 2:00 pm GMT – (USD) NAHB Housing Market Index
- 5:00 pm GMT – (EUR) German Buba President Weidmann Speaks
- 6:00 pm GMT – (USD) Beige Book
- 7:00 pm GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Brainard Speaks
- 8:00 pm GMT – (USD) TIC Long-Term Purchases
- 10:10 pm GMT – (AUD) RBA Deputy Gov Debelle Speaks
- 10:30 pm GMT – (GBP) BOE Gov Carney Speaks
Thursday, October 17, 2019
- 12:30 am GMT – (AUD) Employment Change
- 12:30 am GMT – (AUD) Unemployment Rate
- Tentative – (AUD) NAB Quarterly Business Confidence
- 6:00 am GMT – (CHF) Trade Balance
- 8:00 am GMT – (EUR) Italian Trade Balance
- 8:30 am GMT – (GBP) Retail Sales m/m
- 8:30 am GMT – (GBP) BOE Credit Conditions Survey
- Tentative – (EUR) Spanish 10-y Bond Auction
- 12:30 pm GMT – (CAD) Manufacturing Sales m/m
- 12:30 pm GMT – (CAD) ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
- 12:30 pm GMT – (USD) Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
- 12:30 pm GMT – (USD) Building Permits
- 12:30 pm GMT – (USD) Housing Starts
- 12:30 pm GMT – (USD) Unemployment Claims
- 1:15 pm GMT – (USD) Industrial Production m/m
- 1:15 pm GMT – (USD) Capacity Utilization Rate
- 1:30 pm GMT – (GBP) CB Leading Index m/m
- 2:30 pm GMT – (USD) Natural Gas Storage
- 3:00 pm GMT – (USD) Crude Oil Inventories
- 6:00 pm GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
- 6:00 pm GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Evans Speaks
- 8:20 pm GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Williams Speaks
- 11:30 pm GMT – (JPY) National Core CPI y/y
Friday, October 18, 2019
- 2:00 am GMT – (CNY) GDP q/y
- 2:00 am GMT – (CNY) Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y
- 2:00 am GMT – (CNY) Industrial Production y/y
- 2:00 am GMT – (CNY) NBS Press Conference
- 2:00 am GMT – (CNY) Retail Sales y/y
- 2:00 am GMT – (CNY) Unemployment Rate
- 8:00 am GMT – (EUR) Current Account
- 2:00 pm GMT – (USD) FOMC Member George Speaks
- 2:00 pm GMT – (USD) CB Leading Index m/m
- Day 1 – (All) IMF Meetings
- 3:30 pm GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Clarida Speaks
Saturday, October 19, 2019
- Day 2 – (All) IMF Meetings
Sunday, October 20, 2019
- Day 3 – (All) IMF Meetings
- 11:01 pm GMT – (GBP) Rightmove HPI m/m
- 11:50 pm GMT – (JPY) Trade Balance
