Monday 30th September: Asian markets mixed amid Chinese factory data.

Global Markets:

• Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei down 0.56%, Shanghai Composite down 0.41%, Hang Seng up 0.63%, ASX down 0.41%
• Commodities: Gold at $1495.95 (-0.69%), Silver at $17.40 (-1.42%), Brent Oil at $60.99 (-0.08%), WTI Oil at $55.88 (-0.05%)
• Rates : US 10-year yield at 1.687, UK 10-year yield at 0.488, Germany 10-year yield at -0.557

News & Data:

• (NZD) Building Consents m/m 0.80% vs -1.30% previous
• (USD) Revised UoM Inflation Expectations 2.80% vs 2.80% previous
• (USD) Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 93.2 vs 92 expected
• (USD) Personal Income m/m 0.40% vs 0.40% expected
• (USD) Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.20% vs -1.10% expected
• (USD) Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.10% vs 0.20% expected
• (USD) Personal Spending m/m 0.10% vs 0.30% expected
• (USD) Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.50% vs 0.20% expected
• (EUR) Italian 10-y Bond Auction 0.88|1.4 vs 0.96|1.3 previous
• (EUR) French Prelim CPI m/m -0.30% vs -0.20% expected
• (EUR) French Consumer Spending m/m 0.00% vs 0.30% expected
• (EUR) German Import Prices m/m -0.60% vs -0.30% expected
• (JPY) Prelim Industrial Production m/m -1.20% vs -0.50% expected
• (JPY) Retail Sales y/y 2.00% vs 0.70% expected
• (NZD) ANZ Business Confidence -53.5 vs -52.3 previous
• (AUD) MI Inflation Gauge m/m 0.10% vs 0.00% previous
• (CNY) Manufacturing PMI 49.8 vs 49.6 expected
• (CNY) Non-Manufacturing PMI 53.7 vs 53.9 expected
• (AUD) Private Sector Credit m/m 0.20% vs 0.30% expected
• (CNY) Caixin Manufacturing PMI 51.4 vs 50.2 expected
• (JPY) Housing Starts y/y -7.10% vs -6.10% expected
• (EUR) German Retail Sales m/m 0.50% vs 0.50% expected

CFTC Positioning Data:

• EUR short 61K vs 69K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 8K
• GBP short 81K vs 86K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 5K
• JPY long 13K vs 24K long last week. Longs trimmed by 11K
• CHF short 11k vs 5k short last week. Shorts increased by 6K
• AUD short 47k vs 54k short last week. Shorts trimmed by 7K
• NZD short 36K vs 30K short last week. Shorts increased by 6K
• CAD long 5K vs 20K long last week. Longs trimmed by 15K.

Markets Update:

Asian stock markets, including China’s, edged lower on Monday as sentiment was dented by news that the U.S. administration is considering delisting Chinese companies from U.S. stock exchanges. Risk assets took a hit in U.S. trade on Friday following news the Trump administration is considering radical new financial pressure tactics on Beijing, including the possibility of delisting Chinese companies from U.S. stock exchanges.

U.S. data on Friday showed consumer spending barely rose in August and business investment remained weak, suggesting the American economy was losing momentum as the trade dispute drags on.

Ahead of a long holiday, China’s Shanghai stock index slipped 0.41%, barely responding to any of the concerns around the latest Sino-U.S. tensions that caused the Nasdaq index to fall more than 1% on Friday. Nikkei fell 0.56%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 0.63%. While benchmark indexes in Singapore and Indonesia declined, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was flat.

With no resolution in sight to the U.S.-China trade war, the current modest global economic expansion cycle has taken a hit, prompting major central banks to shift to policy easing this year from a tightening view at the turn of last year. That has not only pushed benchmark sovereign bonds yields to new lows this year, but has also resulted in over $17 trillion – a record amount – of debt securities pushed into the negative yields territory.

The dollar found broad support on Monday as global political uncertainty and fears over a widening of the Sino-U.S trade war kept investors in safe harbours ahead of a slew of global economic indicators this week. The Japanese yen traded at 107.94 after weakening from levels below 107.2 in the previous trading week. The Australian dollar changed hands at $0.6756 after slipping from levels above $0.678 last week.

Oil prices edged higher in the afternoon of Asian trading hours, with international benchmark Brent crude futures up slightly to $60.99 per barrel and U.S. crude futures adding 0.05% to $55.88 per barrel. Gold prices fell on Monday in Asia as safe-haven demand took a hit by reports that Saudi Arabia would agree to a ceasefire in Yemen, where it has been fighting anti-government Houthi rebels for the last four years.

Upcoming Events:

Monday, September 30, 2019

• 12:00 am GMT – (NZD) ANZ Business Confidence
• 1:00 am GMT – (AUD) MI Inflation Gauge m/m
• 1:00 am GMT – (CNY) Manufacturing PMI
• 1:02 am GMT – (CNY) Non-Manufacturing PMI
• 1:30 am GMT – (AUD) Private Sector Credit m/m
• 1:45 am GMT – (CNY) Caixin Manufacturing PMI
• 5:00 am GMT – (JPY) Housing Starts y/y
• 6:00 am GMT – (EUR) German Retail Sales m/m
• 7:00 am GMT – (CHF) KOF Economic Barometer
• 7:00 am GMT – (EUR) Spanish Flash CPI y/y
• All Day – (EUR) German Prelim CPI m/m
• 7:55 am GMT – (EUR) German Unemployment Change
• 8:00 am GMT – (EUR) Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate
• 8:30 am GMT – (GBP) Current Account
• 8:30 am GMT – (GBP) Final GDP q/q
• 8:30 am GMT – (GBP) M4 Money Supply m/m
• 8:30 am GMT – (GBP) Mortgage Approvals
• 8:30 am GMT – (GBP) Net Lending to Individuals m/m
• 8:30 am GMT – (GBP) Revised Business Investment q/q
• 9:00 am GMT – (EUR) Italian Prelim CPI m/m
• 9:00 am GMT – (EUR) Unemployment Rate
• 12:30 pm GMT – (CAD) RMPI m/m
• 12:30 pm GMT – (CAD) IPPI m/m
• 1:45 pm GMT – (USD) Chicago PMI
• 9:00 pm GMT – (NZD) NZIER Business Confidence
• 10:30 pm GMT – (AUD) AIG Manufacturing Index
• 11:30 pm GMT – (JPY) Unemployment Rate
• 11:50 pm GMT – (JPY) Tankan Manufacturing Index
• 11:50 pm GMT – (JPY) Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index

Tuesday, October 01, 2019

• All Day – (CNY) Bank Holiday
• 12:30 am GMT – (JPY) Final Manufacturing PMI
• 1:30 am GMT – (AUD) Building Approvals m/m
• 3:35 am GMT – (JPY) 10-y Bond Auction
• 4:30 am GMT – (AUD) Cash Rate
• 4:30 am GMT – (AUD) RBA Rate Statement
• 6:00 am GMT – (GBP) Nationwide HPI m/m
• 6:30 am GMT – (AUD) Commodity Prices y/y
• 6:30 am GMT – (CHF) Retail Sales y/y
• 7:15 am GMT – (EUR) Spanish Manufacturing PMI
• 7:15 am GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Evans Speaks
• 7:30 am GMT – (CHF) Manufacturing PMI
• 7:45 am GMT – (EUR) Italian Manufacturing PMI
• 7:50 am GMT – (EUR) French Final Manufacturing PMI
• 7:55 am GMT – (EUR) German Final Manufacturing PMI
• 8:00 am GMT – (EUR) Final Manufacturing PMI
• 8:30 am GMT – (GBP) Manufacturing PMI
• 9:00 am GMT – (EUR) CPI Flash Estimate y/y
• 9:00 am GMT – (EUR) Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y
• 9:20 am GMT – (AUD) RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
• 12:30 pm GMT – (CAD) GDP m/m
• 12:50 pm GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Clarida Speaks
• 1:15 pm GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
• 1:30 pm GMT – (CAD) Manufacturing PMI
• 1:30 pm GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
• 1:45 pm GMT – (USD) Final Manufacturing PMI
• 2:00 pm GMT – (USD) ISM Manufacturing PMI
• 2:00 pm GMT – (USD) Construction Spending m/m
• 2:00 pm GMT – (USD) ISM Manufacturing Prices
• All Day – (USD) Wards Total Vehicle Sales
• Tentative – (NZD) GDT Price Index
• 5:30 pm GMT – (EUR) German Buba President Weidmann Speaks
• 11:01 pm GMT – (GBP) BRC Shop Price Index y/y
• 11:50 pm GMT – (JPY) Monetary Base y/y

Wednesday, October 02, 2019

• All Day – (CNY) Bank Holiday
• 5:00 am GMT – (JPY) Consumer Confidence
• 6:30 am GMT – (CHF) CPI m/m
• 7:00 am GMT – (EUR) Spanish Unemployment Change
• 8:30 am GMT – (GBP) Construction PMI
• 12:15 pm GMT – (USD) ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
• 2:30 pm GMT – (USD) Crude Oil Inventories
• 2:50 pm GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Williams Speaks
• 10:30 pm GMT – (AUD) AIG Services Index

Thursday, October 03, 2019

• 12:00 am GMT – (NZD) ANZ Commodity Prices m/m
• All Day – (CNY) Bank Holiday
• 1:30 am GMT – (AUD) Trade Balance
• All Day – (EUR) German Bank Holiday
• 6:45 am GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Evans Speaks
• 7:15 am GMT – (EUR) Spanish Services PMI
• 7:45 am GMT – (EUR) Italian Services PMI
• 7:50 am GMT – (EUR) French Final Services PMI
• 7:55 am GMT – (EUR) German Final Services PMI
• 8:00 am GMT – (EUR) Final Services PMI
• 8:30 am GMT – (GBP) Services PMI
• 9:00 am GMT – (EUR) PPI m/m
• 9:00 am GMT – (EUR) Retail Sales m/m
• Tentative – (EUR) French 10-y Bond Auction
• 11:30 am GMT – (USD) Challenger Job Cuts y/y
• 12:30 pm GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
• 12:30 pm GMT – (USD) Unemployment Claims
• 1:45 pm GMT – (USD) Final Services PMI
• 2:00 pm GMT – (GBP) MPC Member Tenreyro Speaks
• 2:00 pm GMT – (USD) ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
• 2:00 pm GMT – (USD) Factory Orders m/m
• 2:30 pm GMT – (USD) Natural Gas Storage
• 10:35 pm GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Clarida Speaks

Friday, October 04, 2019

• All Day – (CNY) Bank Holiday
• Tentative – (AUD) HIA New Home Sales m/m
• 1:30 am GMT – (AUD) Retail Sales m/m
• 1:30 am GMT – (AUD) RBA Financial Stability Review
• 2:00 am GMT – (AUD) RBA Assist Gov Ellis Speaks
• 6:45 am GMT – (EUR) French Gov Budget Balance
• 8:30 am GMT – (GBP) Housing Equity Withdrawal q/q
• 12:30 pm GMT – (CAD) Trade Balance
• 12:30 pm GMT – (USD) Average Hourly Earnings m/m
• 12:30 pm GMT – (USD) Non-Farm Employment Change
• 12:30 pm GMT – (USD) Unemployment Rate
• 12:30 pm GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks
• 12:30 pm GMT – (USD) Trade Balance
• 2:00 pm GMT – (CAD) Ivey PMI
• 6:00 pm GMT – (USD) Fed Chair Powell Speaks
• 6:10 pm GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Brainard Speaks
• 7:45 pm GMT – (USD) FOMC Member George Speaks
• 8:00 pm GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Quarles Speaks

Saturday, October 05, 2019

• 4:00 pm GMT – (AUD) Daylight Saving Time Shift

Sunday, October 06, 2019

• 9:30 pm GMT – (AUD) AIG Construction Index
• All Day – (AUD) Bank Holiday
• &more…