Global Markets:
- Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 0.53%, Shanghai Composite up 0.57%, Hang Seng up 0.04%, ASX up 0.01%
- Commodities: Gold at $1516.65 (+0.08%), Silver at $18.11 (-0.03%), Brent Oil at $62.07 (+0.86%), WTI Oil at $57.10 (+1.03%)
- Rates : US 10-year yield at 1.562, UK 10-year yield at 0.498, Germany 10-year yield at -0.632
News & Data:
- (CAD) Ivey PMI 60.6 vs 55.2 expected
- (USD) Unemployment Rate 3.70% vs 3.70% expected
- (USD) Non-Farm Employment Change 130K vs 163K expected
- (USD) Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.40% vs 0.30% expected
- (CAD) Unemployment Rate 5.70% vs 5.70% expected
- (CAD) Employment Change 81.1K vs 18.9K expected
- (EUR) Revised GDP q/q 0.20% vs 0.20% expected
- (EUR) Final Employment Change q/q 0.20% vs 0.20% expected
- (GBP) Consumer Inflation Expectations 3.30% vs 3.10% previous
- (EUR) Italian Retail Sales m/m -0.50% vs 0.40% expected
- (GBP) Halifax HPI m/m 0.30% vs 0.20% expected
- (CHF) Foreign Currency Reserves 767B vs 768B previous
- (EUR) French Trade Balance -4.61B vs -4.40B expected
- (EUR) German Industrial Production m/m -0.60% vs 0.40% expected
- (JPY) Leading Indicators 93.60% vs 93.20% expected
- (CNY) USD-Denominated Trade Balance 34.8B vs 44.3B expected
- (CNY) Trade Balance 240B vs 300B expected
- (NZD) Manufacturing Sales q/q -0.70% vs 0.80% previous
- (JPY) Bank Lending y/y 2.10% vs 2.30% expected
- (JPY) Current Account 1.65T vs 1.70T expected
- (JPY) Final GDP q/q 0.30% vs 0.30% expected
- (JPY) Final GDP Price Index y/y 0.40% vs 0.40% expected
- (AUD) Home Loans m/m 5.00% vs 0.50% expected
- (JPY) Economy Watchers Sentiment 42.8 vs 41.4 expected
- (CHF) Unemployment Rate 2.30% vs 2.30% expected
- (EUR) German Trade Balance 20.2B vs 18.8B expected
CFTC Positioning Data:
- EUR short 49K vs 39K short last week. Shorts increased by 10K
- GBP short 85K vs 89K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 4K
- JPY long 28K vs 34K short last week. Longs trimmed by 6K
- CHF short 6k vs 4k short last week. Shorts increased by 2K
- AUD short 59k vs 61k short last week. Shorts trimmed by 2K
- NZD short 31K vs 26K short last week. Shorts increased by 5K
- CAD long 5K vs 11K long last week. Longs trimmed by 6K.
Markets Update:
Asian markets are generally higher in early trading Monday, as investors continued to digest recent economic data. On Sunday, a new report showed China’s trade with the U.S dropped sharply in August, as new tariffs by both sides were announced.
Investors have been encouraged this week by news that envoys from Washington and Beijing plan to begin another round of trade talks next month. Markets have been turbulent in recent weeks as worries about the trade war have waxed and waned. But Wall Street got a modest bounce Friday afternoon after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank is not expecting a U.S. or global recession.
Nikkei, Shanghai indexes edge up while Hang Seng stays about flat at 0.04% as pro-democracy protests continued over the weekend. Nikkei is trading up by around 0.5% and Shanghai is trading up by 0.57%. Down under, Australian stocks are also flat at 0.01%.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield had bounced to a two-week high of 1.6080% on Friday as risk aversion which engulfed global markets at the start of last week eased. But it was last at 1.562% and creeping back towards to a three-year low of 1.4290% set on Sept. 3. U.S. bonds continue to attract demand despite their extremely low yields. The dollar was capped as U.S. yields came off two-week highs after Friday’s soft U.S. jobs report also raised expectations for a Fed rate cut. The dollar fell to 106.89 Japanese yen from 106.97 yen on Friday.
Oil rose on Monday on expectations that Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, will continue to support output cuts by OPEC and other producers to prop up prices under new Energy Minister Prince Bin Salman. Benchmark crude oil added 61 cents to $57.13 a barrel. Brent crude oil, the international standard, added 0.86% to $62.07 a barrel. Gold prices rose to $1516.65 on Monday as the lower interest rates around the world ignited interest in the precious metal.
Upcoming Events:
Monday, September 09, 2019
- 1:30 am GMT – (AUD) Home Loans m/m
- 5:00 am GMT – (JPY) Economy Watchers Sentiment
- 5:45 am GMT – (CHF) Unemployment Rate
- 6:00 am GMT – (EUR) German Trade Balance
- 8:30 am GMT – (EUR) Sentix Investor Confidence
- 8:30 am GMT – (GBP) GDP m/m
- 8:30 am GMT – (GBP) Manufacturing Production m/m
- 8:30 am GMT – (GBP) Construction Output m/m
- 8:30 am GMT – (GBP) Goods Trade Balance
- 8:30 am GMT – (GBP) Index of Services 3m/3m
- 8:30 am GMT – (GBP) Industrial Production m/m
- Tentative – (GBP) NIESR GDP Estimate
- 7:00 pm GMT – (USD) Consumer Credit m/m
- 11:50 pm GMT – (JPY) M2 Money Stock y/y
Tuesday, September 10, 2019
- 1:30 am GMT – (AUD) NAB Business Confidence
- 1:30 am GMT – (CNY) CPI y/y
- 1:30 am GMT – (CNY) PPI y/y
- 5:30 am GMT – (EUR) French Final Private Payrolls q/q
- 6:00 am GMT – (JPY) Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y
- 6:45 am GMT – (EUR) French Industrial Production m/m
- 8:00 am GMT – (EUR) Italian Industrial Production m/m
- 8:30 am GMT – (GBP) Average Earnings Index 3m/y
- 8:30 am GMT – (GBP) Claimant Count Change
- 8:30 am GMT – (GBP) Unemployment Rate
- 10th-15th GMT – (CNY) New Loans
- 10th-15th GMT – (CNY) M2 Money Supply y/y
- 10:00 am GMT – (USD) NFIB Small Business Index
- 12:15 pm GMT – (CAD) Housing Starts
- 12:30 pm GMT – (CAD) Building Permits m/m
- 2:00 pm GMT – (USD) JOLTS Job Openings
- 10:45 pm GMT – (NZD) Visitor Arrivals m/m
- 11:50 pm GMT – (JPY) BSI Manufacturing Index
Wednesday, September 11, 2019
- 12:30 am GMT – (AUD) Westpac Consumer Sentiment
- 11th-17th GMT – (CNY) Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y
- 12:30 pm GMT – (CAD) Capacity Utilization Rate
- 12:30 pm GMT – (USD) Core PPI m/m
- 12:30 pm GMT – (USD) PPI m/m
- 2:00 pm GMT – (USD) Final Wholesale Inventories m/m
- 2:30 pm GMT – (USD) Crude Oil Inventories
- 5:01 pm GMT – (USD) 10-y Bond Auction
- 10:45 pm GMT – (NZD) FPI m/m
- 11:01 pm GMT – (GBP) RICS House Price Balance
- 11:50 pm GMT – (JPY) Core Machinery Orders m/m
- 11:50 pm GMT – (JPY) PPI y/y
Thursday, September 12, 2019
- 1:00 am GMT – (AUD) MI Inflation Expectations
- 4:30 am GMT – (JPY) Tertiary Industry Activity m/m
- 6:00 am GMT – (EUR) German Final CPI m/m
- 6:30 am GMT – (CHF) PPI m/m
- 6:45 am GMT – (EUR) French Final CPI m/m
- 8:00 am GMT – (EUR) Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate
- 9:00 am GMT – (EUR) Industrial Production m/m
- Tentative – (All) OPEC-JMMC Meetings
- 11:45 am GMT – (EUR) Main Refinancing Rate
- 11:45 am GMT – (EUR) Monetary Policy Statement
- 12:30 pm GMT – (CAD) NHPI m/m
- 12:30 pm GMT – (EUR) ECB Press Conference
- 12:30 pm GMT – (USD) CPI m/m
- 12:30 pm GMT – (USD) Core CPI m/m
- 12:30 pm GMT – (USD) Unemployment Claims
- 1:30 pm GMT – (GBP) CB Leading Index m/m
- 2:30 pm GMT – (USD) Natural Gas Storage
- 5:01 pm GMT – (USD) 30-y Bond Auction
- 6:00 pm GMT – (USD) Federal Budget Balance
- 10:30 pm GMT – (NZD) Business NZ Manufacturing Index
Friday, September 13, 2019
- All Day – (CNY) Bank Holiday
- 4:30 am GMT – (JPY) Revised Industrial Production m/m
- 6:00 am GMT – (EUR) German WPI m/m
- 9:00 am GMT – (EUR) Trade Balance
- All Day – (EUR) ECOFIN Meetings
- All Day – (EUR) Eurogroup Meetings
- 12:30 pm GMT – (USD) Core Retail Sales m/m
- 12:30 pm GMT – (USD) Retail Sales m/m
- 12:30 pm GMT – (USD) Import Prices m/m
- 2:00 pm GMT – (USD) Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
- 2:00 pm GMT – (USD) Business Inventories m/m
- 2:00 pm GMT – (USD) Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations
Sunday, September 15, 2019
- 11:01 pm GMT – (GBP) Rightmove HPI m/m
- &more…
