Monday 12th February: European Open Briefing

Global Markets:

• Asian stock markets: Shanghai Composite up 1.13%, Hang Seng up 0.66%, ASX down 0.30%
• Commodities: Gold at $1326.00 (+0.80%), Silver at $16.430 (+1.80%), WTI Oil at $59.87 (+1.77%), Brent Oil at $63.41 (+0.99%)
• Rates: US 10-year yield at 2.857, UK 10-year yield at 1.564, German 10-year yield at 0.748

News & Data:

• (CAD) Unemployment Rate 5.90% vs 5.80% expected
• (CAD) Employment Change -88.0K vs 10.3K expected
• (GBP) Goods Trade Balance -13.6B vs -11.6B expected
• (GBP) Manufacturing Production m/m 0.30% vs 0.30% expected
• (CNY) PPI y/y 4.30% vs 4.40% expected
• (CNY) CPI y/y 1.50% vs 1.50% expected
• Japan Govt Plans To Reappoint BOJ Governor Kuroda
• BitGrail Cryptocurrency Exchange Claims $195 Million Lost to Hackers

CFTC Positioning Data (Week Ending February 6th, 2018)

• EUR long 141K vs 149K long last week. Longs trimmed by 8K.
• GBP long 28K vs 32K long last week. Longs trimmed by 4K.
• JPY short 113K vs 114K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 1K
• CHF short 20K vs 20K short last week. No change in the current week.
• CAD long 40K vs 33K long last week. Longs increased by 7K.
• AUD long 14k vs 13K long last week.  Longs increased by 1K
• NZD long 3K vs 3K short last week.. No change in the current week. 

Markets Update:

Positive sentiment seen on Friday on the Wall Street was echoed in Asian markets today. Investors seemed to have turned their attention to US inflation data, due on Wednesday. Hang Seng was propped up by IT and Financials, while ASX 200 was dragged by the latter. Japanese markets were closed for trading today, on account of National Foundation Day. Along with lower volumes due to the Japanese holiday, volatility in the markets was also observed to be lower. In China, PBoC maintained liquidity, after a series of recent drains by skipping OMOs

US treasury yields were at 2.85, slightly lower than the four year high touched last week. Bond yield backup remains in focus. Increased sensitivity to bond yields continues to drive the markets, with the street looking for a year on year decline to the inflation numbers.

The US Dollar has been trading weaker against most majors. The Sterling recovered much of the losses made on Friday after the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator warned a transition period for the UK government was “not a given”. Commodities largely recovered in today’s trading – with WTI gaining one percent, following Friday’s losses on higher US production concern

Upcoming Events:

Monday, 12^th February 2018

• 09:50 AM GMT – (GBP) MPC Member Vlieghe Speaks
• 04:30 PM GMT – (GBP) MPC Member McCafferty Speaks
• 09:50 PM GMT – (AUD) RBA Assist Gov Ellis Speaks

Tuesday, 13^th February 2018

• 12:30 AM GMT – (AUD) NAB Business Confidence
• 08:15 AM GMT – (CHF) PPI m/m
• 09:30 AM GMT – (GBP) CPI y/y
• 09:30 AM GMT – (GBP) PPI Input m/m
• 09:30 AM GMT – (GBP) RPI y/y
• 01:00 PM GMT – (USD) FOMC Member Mester Speaks

Wednesday, 14^th February 2018

• 02:00 AM GMT – (NZD) Inflation Expectations q/q
• 07:00 AM GMT – (EUR) German Prelim GDP q/q
• 08:00 AM GMT – (EUR) German Buba President Weidmann Speaks
• 08:50 AM GMT – (CHF) Gov Board Member Zurbrugg Speaks
• 10:00 AM GMT – (EUR) Flash GDP q/q
• 11:20 AM GMT – (CHF) Gov Board Member Zurbrugg Speaks
• 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) CPI m/m
• 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Core CPI m/m
• 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Core Retail Sales m/m
• 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Retail Sales m/m
• 03:30 PM GMT – (USD) Crude Oil Inventories

Thursday, 15^th February 2018

• 12:30 AM GMT – (AUD) Employment Change
• 12:30 AM GMT – (AUD) Unemployment Rate
• 01:30 PM GMT – (CAD) ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
• 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) PPI m/m
• 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Core PPI m/m
• 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Empire State Manufacturing Index
• 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
• 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Unemployment Claims
• 02:15 PM GMT – (USD) Capacity Utilization Rate
• 02:15 PM GMT – (USD) Industrial Production m/m
• 06:30 PM GMT – (CAD) Gov Council Member Schembri Speaks
• 09:30 PM GMT – (NZD) Business NZ Manufacturing Index
• 10:30 PM GMT – (AUD) RBA Gov Lowe Speaks

Friday, 16^th February 2018

• 09:30 AM GMT – (GBP) Retail Sales m/m
• 01:30 PM GMT – (CAD) Foreign Securities Purchases
• 01:30 PM GMT – (CAD) Manufacturing Sales m/m
• 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Building Permits
• 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Housing Starts
• 01:30 PM GMT – (USD) Import Prices m/m
• 03:00 PM GMT – (USD) Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
• &more…