Global Markets:
- Asian stock markets: Nikkei down 0.10 %, Shanghai Composite lost 0.15 %, Hang Seng declined 0.90 %, ASX gained 0.55 %
- Commodities: Gold at $1140 (+0.30 %), Silver at $16.16 (-0.40 %), WTI Oil at $53.40 (+0.80 %), Brent Oil at $55.55 (+0.65 %)
- Rates: US 10-year yield at 2.59, UK 10-year yield at 1.44, German 10-year yield at 0.31
News & Data:
- Japan Trade Balance (JPY) Nov: 152.5bln (est 227.4bln, prev 496.2bln)
- Japan Exports (YoY) Nov: -0.4% (est -2.0%, prev -10.3%)
- Japan Imports (YoY) Nov: -8.8% (est -12.6%, prev -16.5%)
- China New House Prices (YoY) Nov: 12.6% (prev 12.3%)
- NZ Westpac Consumer Survey Q4: 113.1 (prev 108.0)
- NZ Performance Services Index Nov: 57.9 (prev 56.3, rev 56.6)
- NZ Building Permits (MoM) Oct: 2.6% (prev 0.2%, rev -0.2%)
- NZ ANZ Activity Outlook Dec: 39.6% (prev 37.6%)
- NZ ANZ Business Confidence Dec: 21.7% (prev 20.5%)
- PBoC fixes yuan midpoint at 6.9312 (prev 6.9508)
- Fears EU Brexit delays will spur bank exodus to Eurozone — FT
- Australia forecasts 2016 GDP growth of 2.0% (May forecast 2.5%)
- Japan November exports beat expectations as yen tumbles, volumes rise – RTRS
- China government researchers see 2017 GDP growth slowing, yuan falling – RTRS
- Dollar pulls away from 14-year peak as investors take profits – RTRS
CFTC Positioning Data:
- EUR 88K short vs 115K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 27K
- GBP 72K short vs. 77K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 5K
- JPY 63K short vs. 34K short last week. Shorts increased by 29K
- CHF 25K short vs 25K short last week. Unchanged this week
- CAD 22K short vs 18K short last week. Shorts increased by 4K
- AUD 14K long vs 21K long last week. Longs trimmed by 7K
- NZD 4K short vs 4K short last week. Unchanged this week
Markets Update:
The Japanese Yen strengthened after stronger than expected trade data. USD/JPY opened around 118.00 in Asia, but declined to a low of 117.17 later in the session. Support can be expected at 117.00, followed by 116.20. The Euro was quite overnight and traded within a 1.0435-65 range. The Pound strengthened in the early Asian session and briefly rose above 1.25, but eventually lost momentum and fell back to 1.2465.
The Australian Dollar caught a bid at the open and rallied from 0.7275 to 0.7315. After the Tokyo open, it came under pressure and eventually reversed the earlier gains, declining to 0.7285.
The New Zealand Dollar however, remains up on the day, following some strong data releases out of the country. Both consumer and business confidence showed improvement, and building permits rose as well.
Upcoming Events:
- 09:00 GMT – German IFO Business Climate
- 14:45 GMT – US Services PMI
- 18:30 GMT – Fed Chair Yellen speaks
The Week Ahead:
Tuesday, December 20th
- 00:30 GMT – RBA Meeting Minutes
- 03:00 GMT – Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision
- 07:00 GMT – German PPI
- 07:30 GMT – Bank of Japan Press Conference
- 09:00 GMT – Euro Zone Current Account
- 21:45 GMT – New Zealand Trade Balance
Wednesday, December 21st
- 15:00 GMT – US Existing Home Sales
- 15:30 GMT – US Crude Oil Inventories
- 21:45 GMT – New Zealand GDP
- 21:45 GMT – New Zealand Current Account
Thursday, December 22nd
- 09:30 GMT – UK GDP
- 13:30 GMT – US Durable Goods Orders
- 13:30 GMT – US GDP
- 13:30 GMT – US Initial Jobless Claims
- 13:30 GMT – Canadian CPI
- 13:30 GMT – Canadian Retail Sales
- 14:00 GMT – US House Price Index
- 15:00 GMT – US Personal Income
- 15:00 GMT – US Personal Spending
- 15:00 GMT – US Core PCE Price Index
Friday, December 23rd
- 07:00 GMT – German GfK Consumer Climate
- 07:45 GMT – French GDP
- 09:30 GMT – UK GDP
- 13:30 GMT – US GDP
- 15:00 GMT – US New Home Sales
- 15:00 GMT – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment
- 20:30 GMT – CFTC Positioning Data
