Thursday 8th December: European Open Briefing

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Global Markets:

  • Asian stock markets: Nikkei up 1.40 %, Shanghai Composite gained 0.05 %, Hang Seng rose 0.75 %, ASX 200 rallied 1.20 %
  • Commodities: Gold at $1179 (+0.15 %), Silver at $17.23 (-0.30 %), WTI Oil at $49.90 (+0.20 %), Brent Oil at $53.05 (+0.10 %)
  • Rates: US 10-year yield at 2.34, UK 10-year yield at 1.36, German 10-year yield at 0.35

News & Data:

  • China Trade Balance (USD) Nov: 44.61bln (est 46.9bln, prev 49.06bln)
  • China Exports (USD) (YoY) Nov: 0.1% (est -5.0%, prev -7.3%)
  • China Imports (USD) (YoY) Nov: 6.7% (est -1.9%, prev -1.4%)
  • Japanese GDP (QoQ) Q3 F: 0.3% (est 0.5%, prev 0.5%)
  • Japanese GDP Annualised (QoQ) Q3 F: 1.3% (est 2.3%, prev 2.2%)
  • Japanese Trade Balance BoP Basis (JPY) Oct: 587.6bln (est 603bln, prev 642.4bln)
  • Australian Trade Balance (AUD) Oct: -1.541bln (est -800mln, prev -1.227bln, rev -1.272)
  • Australian Imports (YoY) Oct: 2.0% (prev -1.0%)
  • Australian Exports (YoY) Oct: 1.0% (prev 2.0%)
  • UK RICS House Price Survey Nov: 30 (est 26, prev 23)
  • PBoC sets CNY midpoint at 6.8731 (prev 6.8808)
  • Asia stocks extend gains, hit one-month peak on upbeat China trade data – RTRS
  • China November exports, imports rise unexpectedly, commodity purchases soar – RTRS

Markets Update:

Risk sentiment improved after Chinese trade data was released, which showed an increase in imports, a hint that domestic demand has strengthened. All the major Asian stock indices are up on the day, and commodity currencies rallied. NZD/USD rose from 0.7160 to 0.7220, while AUD/USD made it from 0.7475 to 0.7510. USD/CAD came under renewed pressure due to the rally in Oil prices, and fell from 1.33 to 1.3210.

The Euro is relatively quiet ahead of the ECB rate decision today; EUR/USD consolidated in a 1.0750-80 range. The market is expecting the central bank to leave all key rates unchanged, but to extend the duration of the QE programme.

USD/JPY fell in the early Asian session, despite the risk-on sentiment in markets. However, the pair found support ahead of 113 and made it back to 113.60. GBP/USD rose from 1.2615 to 1.2665.

Upcoming Events:

  • 12:45 BST – ECB Rate Decision
  • 13:30 BST – US Initial Jobless Claims
  • 13:30 BST – ECB Press Conference

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