Global Markets:
- Asian stock markets: Nikkei and ASX 200 both gained 0.05 %, Shanghai Composite up 0.60 %, Hang Seng rose 0.40 %
- Commodities: Gold at $1283 (+0.30 %), Silver at $18.26 (+0.60 %), WTI Oil at $44.85 (-0.10 %), Brent Oil at $46.25 (+0.20 %)
- Rates: US 10-year yield at 1.82, UK 10-year yield at 1.20, German 10-year yield at 0.16
News & Data:
- China Trade Balance (USD) Oct: 49.06B (est. 51.70B, prev. 41.99B)
- China Exports (YoY) Oct: -7.7% (est. -6.00%, prev. -10.00%)
- China Imports (YoY) Oct: -7.5% (est. -1.00%, prev. -1.90%)
- Australia NAB Business Conditions Oct: 6 (prev. 8)
- Australia NAB Business Confidence Oct: 4 (prev. 6)
- Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index 6-Nov: 117.8 (prev. 114.1)
- UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) Oct: 1.7% (est. 0.60%, prev. 0.40%)
- Japan FinMin Aso: Will be watching FX market closely for US election volatility, may need to intervene in FX as response
- Asian shares edge up as investors cautiously optimistic on Clinton win – RTRS
- Dollar steady ahead of U.S. presidential election – RTRS
Markets Update:
Markets have calmed down ahead of the US elections, which will take place today. We should get the first poll results around midnight GMT, while the earliest possible time the election will be called for either candidate is around 04:00 GMT (Wednesday morning).
The market is clearly pricing in a Clinton victory, as global stock indices rallied, along with risk currencies like the AUD and NZD. Emerging markets currencies have benefited as well, with the Mexican Peso rising to 18.50 against the Dollar.
Overnight, the US Dollar appreciated slightly against the other majors. The Australian Dollar was the worst performing currency following weaker than expected domestic business confidence data, as well as poor Chinese trade data. AUD/USD fell from 0.7730 to a low of 0.7690, before bouncing back to 0.7705. NZD came under pressure as well, and declined from 0.7350 to 0.7320 against the Dollar.
EUR/USD traded between 1.1030 and 1.1050 overnight, while Cable spent the Asian session in a 1.2385 and 1.2405 range. USD/JPY consolidated after the sharp rally yesterday, and was caught in a 104.30-60 range.
Upcoming Events:
- 07:00 GMT – German Trade Balance
- 07:45 GMT – French Trade Balance
- 09:30 GMT – UK Manufacturing Production
- 09:30 GMT – UK Industrial Production
- 13:15 GMT – Canadian Housing Starts
- 15:00 GMT – UK NIESR GDP Estimate
- 15:00 GMT – US JOLTs Job Openings
- 23:30 GMT – Australia Westpac Consumer Sentiment
