Global Markets:
- Asian stock markets: Nikkei up 1.55 %, Shanghai Composite gained 0.30 %, Hang Seng rose 0.55 %, ASX 200 rallied 1.35 %
- Commodities: Gold at $1290 (-1.00 %), Silver at $18.15 (-1.20 %), WTI Oil at $44.65 (+1.30 %), Brent Oil at $46.10 (+1.10 %)
- Rates: US 10-year yield at 1.83, UK 10-year yield at 1.13, German 10-year yield at 0.14
News & Data:
- Australia Oct Performance of Construction Index Oct: 45.9 (prev. 51.4)
- Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) Sep: 1.0% (prev-0.3%)
- Japan Labour Cash Earnings (YoY) September: 0.2% (est. 0.2%, prev. 0.0%)
- Japan Real Cash Earnings (YoY) September: 0.9% (est. 0.7%, prev. 0.6%)
- New Zealand correct Q3 CPI to 0.3% MoM (prev. 0.2%) and 0.4% YoY (prev. 0.2%)
- Asia stocks bounce as optimism over Clinton grows; dollar strong – RTRS
- Dollar jumps as FBI decision gives Clinton eleventh hour boost – RTRS
- Oil prices bounce back after week of sharp falls – RTRS
CFTC Positioning Data:
- EUR 137K short vs 124K short last week. Shorts increased by 14K
- GBP 83K short vs. 84K short last week. Shorts decreased by 1K
- JPY 43K long vs. 45K long last week. Longs decreased by 2K.
- CHF 20K short vs 19K short last week. Shorts increased by 1K
- CAD 16K short vs 13K short last week. Shorts increased by 3K
- AUD 41K long vs 32K long last week. Longs increased by 9K
Markets Update:
Asian stock markets rallied overnight, after the FBI announced that it has cleared US presidential candidate Hillary Clinton of charges, only two days ahead of election day. The Nikkei rallied more than 1 % on the day, while S&P 500 and Dow Jones futures also gained roughly 1 % at the open.
In FX, the US Dollar strengthened across the board at the open. EUR/USD fell from 1.1140 to 1.1055, but was able to partly fill the weekend gap later in the session as it rose to 1.1110. Similar price action was seen in Cable, which fell from 1.2520 to 1.2450 and bounced back to 1.25. However, Cable come under renewed pressure in the late Asian session and fell to a fresh intraday low of 1.2420.
USD/JPY rallied sharply overnight. It started the new trading week at 104.10, up almost 100 pips from Friday's close, and extended gains to 104.60 later in the session. Strong demand was also seen for the Yen crosses – especially AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY.
It was a mixed session for the commodity currencies. No large weekend gap was seen in them, and the JPY cross demand slowed their decline against the Dollar. AUD/USD traded in a 0.7655-85 range overnight, while NZD/USD consolidated between 0.7300 and 0.7350.
Upcoming Events:
- 07:00 GMT – German Factory Orders
- 08:15 GMT – Swiss CPI
- 08:30 GMT – UK Halifax House Price Index
- 09:30 GMT – Euro Zone Sentix Investor Confidence
- 10:00 GMT – Euro Zone Retail Sales
The Week Ahead:
Tuesday, November 8th
- 00:30 GMT – Australia NAB Business Confidence
- 03:00 GMT – China Trade Balance
- 05:00 GMT – Japan Leading Index
- 07:00 GMT – German Trade Balance
- 07:45 GMT – French Trade Balance
- 09:30 GMT – UK Manufacturing Production
- 09:30 GMT – UK Industrial Production
- 13:15 GMT – Canadian Housing Starts
- 15:00 GMT – UK NIESR GDP Estimate
- 15:00 GMT – US JOLTs Job Openings
- 23:30 GMT – Australia Westpac Consumer Sentiment
Wednesday, November 9th
- 01:30 GMT – Chinese CPI
- 01:30 GMT – Chinese PPI
- 09:30 GMT – UK Trade Balance
- 15:30 GMT – US Crude Oil Inventories
- 20:00 GMT – RBNZ Rate Decision
- 20:00 GMT – RBNZ Statement
- 21:00 GMT – RBNZ Governor Wheeler speaking
Thursday, November 10th
- 00:00 GMT – Australia MI Inflation Expectations
- 00:30 GMT – Australia Home Loans
- 02:00 GMT – FOMC Member Williams speaks
- 13:30 GMT – US Initial Jobless Claims
- 14:15 GMT – FOMC Member Bullard speaks
Friday, November 11th
- 01:00 GMT – RBA Assistant Governor Debelle speaks
- 07:00 GMT – German CPI
- 14:00 GMT – FOMC Member Fischer speaks
- 15:00 GMT – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment
- 15:50 GMT – Bank of Canada Governor Poloz speaks
