Global Markets:
- Asian stock markets: Nikkei down 1.96 %, Shanghai Composite gained 0.55 %, Hang Seng fell 0.95 %, ASX 200 declined 1.55 %
- Commodities: Gold at $1075 (-0.03 %), Silver at $13.90 (+0.10 %), WTI Oil at $35.45 (-0.50 %), Brent Oil at $38.10 (-0.55 %)
- Rates: US 10 year yield at 2.16, UK 10 year yield at 1.81, German 10 year yield at 0.54
News & Data:
- China Retail Sales (YoY) Nov: 11.2% (exp 11.1% prev 11.0%)
- China Industrial Production (YoY) Nov: 6.2% (exp 5.7% prev 5.6%)
- Japan Large Manufacturing Index: 12 (exp 11 prev 12)
- Japan Large Manufacturing Outlook: 7 (exp 11 prev 10)
- Japan Large Non-Manufacturing Index: 25 (exp 23 prev 25)
- Japan Large Non-Manufacturing Outlook: 18 (exp 22 prev 19)
- Japan Large All Industry Capex: 10.8% (exp 10.2% prev 10.9%)
- PBoC Fixes Yuan Reference Rate At 6.4495 (prev 6.4358)
- Gulf Markets Slide On Oil — GT
- WSJ’s Hilsenrath: Fed Officials Worry Interest Rates Will Go Up, Only To Come Back Down
- Asia stocks drop as oil rout deepens, yuan extends slide – RTRS
CFTC Positioning Data:
- EUR short 172K vs. short 182K previous
- GBP short 24K vs. short 28K previous
- JPY short 68K vs. short 75K previous
- CAD short 40K vs short 39K previous
- CHF short 26K vs. short 25K previous
- AUD short 34K vs short 47K previous
- NZD long 9K vs. long 5K previous
Markets Update:
EUR/USD opened around 1.0984 in Sydney and fell to a low of 1.0954 in Asia, as the USD strengthened across the board. GBP/USD started the week at 1.5215 and declined to 1.5180, from where it bounced back to 1.52 at the Tokyo open. USD/JPY recovered slightly after heavy losses on Friday. It stood at 121.15 in Sydney and fell to 120.75, but found decent support there and made it to 121.20.
The commodity currencies remain mostly unchanged on the day. AUD/USD began the new trading week at 0.7205, fell to 0.7160 and rallied back to 0.7205. NZD/USD consolidated in a 0.6690-0.6720 range, while price action in USD/CAD remains choppy. The pair opened at 1.3715, roughly 40 pips lower from Friday's close, filled the gap and then fell back to 1.3730.
There are plenty of important data releases and events this week, but the focus will be on the Federal Reserve rate decision on Wednesday, when the central bank is expected to hike rates by 25 bps.
Upcoming Events:
- 09:00 GMT – Italian CPI
- 10:00 GMT – Euro Zone Industrial Production
- 10:00 GMT – ECB Member Nowotny speaks
- 11:00 GMT – ECB President Draghi speaks
- 15:00 GMT – ECB Member Costa speaks
The Week Ahead:
Tuesday, December 15th
- 00:30 GMT – RBA Meeting Minutes
- 08:00 GMT – Spanish CPI
- 08:15 GMT – Swiss PPI
- 08:30 GMT – Riksbank Rate Decision
- 09:30 GMT – UK CPI
- 10:00 GMT – German ZEW Economic Sentiment
- 10:00 GMT – Euro Zone ZEW Economic Sentiment
- 13:30 GMT – US CPI
- 13:30 GMT – US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
- 15:00 GMT – US NAHB Housing Market Index
- 16:45 GMT – Bank of Canada Governor Poloz speaks
- 21:45 GMT – New Zealand Current Account
Wednesday, December 16th
- 08:00 GMT – French Manufacturing PMI
- 08:00 GMT – French Services PMI
- 08:30 GMT – German Manufacturing PMI
- 08:30 GMT – German Services PMI
- 09:00 GMT – Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI
- 09:00 GMT – Euro Zone Services PMI
- 09:30 GMT – UK Claimant Count Change
- 09:30 GMT – UK Unemployment Rate
- 10:00 GMT – Euro Zone CPI
- 13:30 GMT – US Building Permits
- 13:30 GMT – US Housing Starts
- 14:15 GMT – US Industrial Production
- 14:15 GMT – US Manufacturing Production
- 14:45 GMT – US Manufacturing PMI
- 19:00 GMT – FOMC Rate Decision
- 19:00 GMT – FOMC Statement
- 21:45 GMT – New Zealand GDP
Thursday, December 17th
- 09:00 GMT – German IFO Business Climate
- 09:00 GMT – Norges Bank Rate Decision
- 09:30 GMT – UK Retail Sales
- 13:30 GMT – US Initial Jobless Claims
- 13:30 GMT – US Philadelphia Manufacturing Index
- 15:00 GMT – US CB Leading Index
Friday, December 18th
- 00:00 GMT – New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence
- 06:30 GMT – Bank of Japan Press Conference
- 09:00 GMT – Euro Zone Current Account
- 13:30 GMT – Canadian CPI
- 14:45 GMT – US Services PMI
